Posted on 6/8/2007 8:08:38 PM

Bet on the French Open Final – Federer vs. Nadal

By Nila Amerova

Paris, France – Once again, the biggest rivalry in tennis today comes to the forefront, as the Roland Garros Final on Sunday, June 10th will play host to both No. 1 Roger Federer and No. 2 Rafael Nadal.

Federer squeezed into the final following a close victory over Nikolay Davydenko in the semifinal, 7-5, 7-6(5), 7-6(7), while Nadal dispatched Djokovic in straight sets 7-5, 6-4, 6-2.

With a sense of déjà vu in Paris, the pre-tournament predicted final of Federer and Nadal is almost upon us - and what a final it promises to be. Federer is bidding to complete a career Grand Slam at Roland Garros (winning all four Grand Slam titles at least once at any point in time); while two-time defending champion Nadal is vying for a hat trick in Paris.

 

However, before a victor can be crowned and history scripted, the preliminaries must be dispensed with – the matter of a victory at the Roland Garros final must be decided first.

Who will rise above the dusty red clouds on Court Philippe Chatrier on Sunday? Will Federer seize the elusive French Open title and go down in history as the greatest tennis player? Alternatively, will Nadal script his own nook in history and reaffirm his supreme reign in Paris?

Rafael Nadal -240 Roger Federer +180

If the line is an indication of which story will be told in Paris on Sunday, Nadal’s price tag of -240 would suggest his tale will be scripted in the red dust of Roland Garros.

The two-time defending champion, Nadal improved his record to 20-0 in Paris following his victory over Djokovic in the semifinal. Dominant on clay, Nadal ruthlessly grinds opponents with a punishing forehand and backhand, only to finish them off with a running forehand that leaves them biting the dust as the ball whizzes past. Against Djokovic, Nadal’s divine running forehand had the young Serbian crossing himself in holy respect.

Strengthening Nadal’s value in this matchup is an 81 consecutive clay-match winning streak; two French Open titles, which includes a 20-match winning streak in Paris; and a 7-4 record against Federer, which includes a 5-1 record on clay.

 

For those of you that have a penchant for underdogs, Federer is one underdog that can never be discounted. While Nadal dominates clay, Federer dominates tennis. There is no amount of hyperbole in any scripted repertoire sufficient to describe Roger Federers’ game. As such, at +180, the maestro of tennis is a bet worth considering.

Federer’s +180 price tag is strengthened by his recent victory against Nadal at the Masters Series Final in Hamburg; and the historical dimension of a victory in Paris – the completion of a career Grand Slam, a feat last accomplished by Rod Laver in 1969.

Before Hamburg, it looked like Nadal would be unstoppable in Paris and the tournament a mere formality before his eventual crowning. Betting on Nadal would not have required a second thought. However, Hamburg changed that perception, as Federer’s victory set the stage for an epic third showdown in Paris. (Nadal defeated Federer twice in Paris - the 2006 final and the 2005 semifinal.)

In terms of Federer’s French Open prospects, at best it served to change the hype leading up to the tournament. Federer’s victory in Hamburg was two-fold, it simultaneously ended Nadal’s winning streak and his losing streak against Nadal on clay, and it improved his odds in the French Open final.

The question is, can Federer replicate his performance in Hamburg? As good as Federer is, he will have a tough match against Nadal on Sunday and, while he certainly can best anyone on any surface, on this given Sunday, the hype tips in Nadal’s favor.

Tennis Free Picks: – Nadal for the victory in four sets!

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Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.