Posted on 1/25/2008 7:33:40 PM

Australian Open Final Tennis Picks: Sharapova vs. Ivanovic

By Nila Amerova

Melbourne, Australia – Tonight’s Australian Open women’s final highlights two of the best players in women’s tennis – Maria Sharapova vs. Ana Ivanovic. Sharapova, despite a lower seeding and rank, enters this matchup as the bookies favourite at -550. Bet on this marquee women’s matchup, as Sharapova and Ivanovic vie for the right to lift the first

Grand Slam crown of the season.

Match Time: 9:30 PM EST, Friday January 25, 2008

Tennis Betting Line:

To win first set Odds:

Maria Sharapova -5 -115 -550 Over 20 -125

Ana Ivanovic +5 -125 +325 Under 20 -115

Maria Sharapova (1st Set) -1½ -215 -350 Over 9½ EV

Ana Ivanovic (1st Set) +1½ +165 +225 Under 9½ -140

Tennis Prediction: At the very start of the tournament, I alluded to the misleading notion that betting on favourites was a sure thing. Betting on tennis is never a sure thing. In fact, there are always upsets and nigh upsets – the 2008 Australian Open finalists, on both the men and women’s side are a testament to this fact.

If there were any one factor that played a significant role in the outcome of this Australian Open, it was the new plexicushion surface. In tennis, surface is a key factor in handicapping matches. The slower and lower-bouncing balls of the new surface (which replaced last year’s faster and higher-bouncing Rebound Ace court) has clearly lent some of the underdogs of the sport some added value, particularly those baseline grinders fit enough to keep up with some of the heavy-hitters of the game.

Ana Ivanovic is such a baseline grinder. At +225 on the money line, the Serbian starlet holds value in this matchup. Tied at 2 in career head-to-heads against Maria Sharapova, Ivanovic dealt Sharapova a crushing defeat at the French Open semifinal 6-2, 6-1. However, I would not put a lot of significance on this outcome, for it is widely known Sharapova hates playing on clay and she was struggling throughout the 2007 season.

Maria Sharapova opened on the line at -500, but has since moved up the line, priced higher at -550 for the win. Sharapova’s increasing favouritism is no surprise, as anyone who has followed her impressive run to the final would wager on it without a second thought. Her performance has been perfect; in fact, near-flawless, but does that guarantee her a win tonight?

Not necessarily, for if there is any lesson to be had from this first Grand Slam outing, it is the fact that anything can happen. That being said, I still feel strongly about Sharapova’s odds to win tonight.

Tennis Free Picks: Sharapova in straight sets

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Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.