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posted January 4, 2008 at 18:31 in Tennis Free Picks

Despite the fact that World No. 1 Roger Federer has dominated men’s tennis the last four seasons, finishing No. 1 each time while winning three out of four grand slams in three of the last four seasons, there may be no tougher feat on the men’s ATP tour than the complexity of winning the often-elusive French Open.

A look at the winners of the tournament shows that not many players have the ability to adjust to the surface and speed of hitting on the red clay at Roland Garros.

French Open Winners

1999 Andre Agassi USA

2000 Gustavo Kuerten BRA

2001 Gustavo Kuerten BRA

2002 Albert Costa ESP

2003 Juan Carlos Ferrero ESP

2004 Gaston Gaudio ARG

2005 Rafael Nadal ESP

2006 Rafael Nadal ESP

2007 Rafael Nadal ESP

While three-time defending champion and World No. 2 Rafael Nadal will clearly be the odd-on-favorite to win the entire tournament, he, like World No. 1, Roger Federer, will likely have a much tougher task to winning their usual Grand Slam tennis titles in 2008, because of the emergence of several up-and-coming young players, most notably, that of World No. 3, Novak Djokovic.

Here is a look at the French Open Odds for each player, followed by their respective overall record for the 2007 season and my subsequent selection on which player I believe will actually win the 2008 French Open.

Player Odds 2007 W-L Record

Rafael Nadal -175 (70-15)

Nadal is the logical, (only), choice to win his fourth consecutive French Open title in 2008 and clearly has no equal on clay at the moment.

Roger Federer +250 (68-9)

Federer is still seeking his elusive first French Open title, but Nadal has shown that he clearly the superior clay court player. News flash … Federer is not, repeat, not, going to reach this year’s final.

Novak Djokovic +800 (68-19)

I genuinely think Djokovic has the best ‘all-surface’ game of any player on the tour at the moment, including Federer and Nadal.

David Nalbandian +1400 (31-18)

Nalbandian doesn’t have the mental fortitude to beat either of the aforementioned three players. Too bad – because Nalbandian’s a pretty good player.

Nikolay Davydenko +2800 (53-31)

Davydenko does have the heart to compete with the top three players in the world – and the game. Can you say dark horse?

David Ferrer +1800 (61-23)

Ferrer really impressed me last season and has an absolutely huge heart on the court that will never allow him to quit no matter how far down to an opponent. Like Davydenko, Ferrer is right on the cusp of greatness – it’s just that Federer keeps stopping him, like everyone else he plays.

Tommy Robredo +4000 (49-26)

Robredo is a top 20 player and that’s it, (though that fact is not exactly chopped liver). He will not win a Grand Slam title in this lifetime.

Andrew Murray +3500 (43-14)

I thought Murray was headed toward a huge season before getting injured last season. Now, I’m just wondering if the pencil-thin Murray can make it through a season without getting hurt.

Richard Gasquet +3000 (49-24)

‘Baby Federer’ is his nickname, but ‘Baby Phat’ is a lot more suitable. He’s got the game to compete with the ‘big boys’ now if only his heart and desire would catch up to his often phenomenal shot-making.

Juan Carlos Ferrero +4500 (34-23)

Ferrero’s mediocre record from last season speaks for itself – and it says no French pen title.

Marcos Baghdatis +4500 (48-22)

The ‘Big Smile’ has the heart of a champion and the game to nearly match it. The beefy Baghdatis could be a threat here, with the red clay slowing down balls that would normally be a passing shot winner for hard court players. Besides, with a smile like Magic Johnson, how can you not like him?

Fernando Gonzalez +4500 (37-24)

Gonzalez has a nice game, but nothing to write home about.

Igor Andreev +4500 (36-27)

Get real, it’s not gonna’ happen for Andreev, at least not this year.

Guillermo Canas +4000 (39-21)

If Canas can beat Federer twice in the matter of weeks, is anything impossible? Didn’t think so.

Carlos Moya +6000 (42-23)

Moya’s best days are far, far behind him.

Nicolas Almagro +5000 (34-27)

Alma … who? Get real

Mikhail Youzhny +6000 (50-24)

Youzhny is blossoming quickly, but certainly isn’t ready to hoist a Grand Slam title anytime soon.

Lleyton Hewitt +7000 (35-16)

It’s hard to believe that Hewitt was once the hot young star on tour whose career looked as bright as the sun at one point. Of course, that was before Federer began trashing everyone standing in his path to immortality.

Gael Monfils +8000 (21-21)

Federer has already gone on record as saying Monfils is the fastest player on tour. True or not, the athletic Frenchman has not shown much growth in his maturity level or in developing his promising game. Monfils tries to get by on sheer athleticism alone – a tactic that will never truly allow him to enter the upper echelon until he learns to hone his craft and stop whacking at the ball carelessly.

Tomas Berdych +6500 (46-24)

Berdych is a big, big hitter … too bad that doesn’t mean much of anything at the French Open, which requires more skill and less brute strength.

Analysis: The reality of the French Open is that, most players who honed their respective games on harder surfaces, even the very best in the world, struggle to make the necessary adjustments in their respective games to succeed for any extended length of time at Roland Garros, making the tournament nearly impossible to win for players who generally don’t get the opportunity to practice very much on clay.

While Rafael Nadal is the clear-cut favorite, and my selection to win his fourth consecutive French Open, (duh), I think he may his hands fuller than expected in 2008, not only with Federer, who is still seeking his elusive first French Open victory, but several other players as well, most notably, blossoming World No. 3, Serbian Novak Djokovic, who may have the best ‘all-surface’ game of any player on the Men’s ATP tour.

In the end though, it’s pretty hard to go against Nadal, who has yet to lose a match at the French Open – for his entire career - and could recreate Open-era history by winning his fourth straight French Open title in 2008.

Selection: Rafael Nadal

Dark Horse: Novak Djokovic

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