posted January 23, 2008 at 17:30 in Tennis Betting Trends

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is 0-1 against Rafael Nadal in his career, losing to the fiery Spaniard 7-6 (3), 6-2, 6-1 in the second round at last year’s U.S. Open, but the blossoming Frenchman is certainly not the same player he was last season after shedding at least 25 pounds and chopping some much-needed inches off of his retro 1907s afro.

Though the soon-to-be 23-year-old Tsonga was knocked out in the first round of last year’s Aussie Open in his first and only appearance at the year’s first grand slam, the now, sleek Tsonga has been one of the biggest surprises of this year’s tournament.

The 38th-ranked Tsonga, who may now be France’s best player, beat World No. 9 Andy Murray in four sets in the first round before winning three more matches, including a four set victory over fellow Frenchman and World No. 8, Richard Gasquet in the fourth round and an impressive straight sets victory over World No. 14 Mikhail Youzhny in their quarterfinal showdown.

Nadal, the No. 2-ranked player in the world has never won an Australian Open and has never passed the quarterfinal round, losing in last year’s quarters after not playing in 2006.

Nadal has also been playing excellent tennis in not dropping a set in reaching the quarterfinal round, although he has not faced any player ranked inside the top 20.

Analysis: I’ll keep this pick simple and say that Nadal is ‘supposed’ to win this match, but so was every other player who faced Tsonga in this tournament.

I don’t believe it even as I’m writing it, but I say take the scorching-hot Tsonga for the huge upset here.

Free Pick: Tsonga

07:00 PM EST

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga +300

Rafael Nadal -500

ATP Australian Open Semifinals