posted February 11, 2008 at 19:04 in NHL Free Picks

So let me get this straight. Toronto is one of the worst teams in the league, with only 55 points to boot and a brutal record that has them stuck in the depths of Eastern Conference hell. They are currently tied with the Islanders for second-worst in the East, and have been a NHL betting faithful’s worst nightmare throughout this season.

Things seem at their worst when Toronto got pummeled by the Florida Panthers in an 8-0 spanking against a team that the Leafs have usually had a tremendous amount of success against. The week wasn’t supposed to get better with matchups against Montreal and Detroit, both ranked in the top-3 in their conferences. But they did.

Toronto muscled a victory over their Canadiens rivals with a 4-2 triumph. Then on Saturday, they clinched a massive upset over Detroit in over-time. Couple those victories with a 4-2 stomping over the Ottawa Senators and you’re looking at a team that has gone 3-1 SU against three top-3 teams in the league. But then again, they did lose to the Florida Panthers 8-0.

What’s more surprising about this whole ordeal is that the Leafs have been keyed by none other than Darcy Tucker, who has been inexplicably horrific for much of the season. The punchy 5-foot-10, 178 pound scrapper is on pace for only 24-points this season, after registering a total of 104 over the past two seasons. But is Tucker’s seeming resurrection a glimpse in to the murky future of the team not-so-affectionately known as the Maple Flakes?

Perhaps. Perhaps not. The hard truth remains that no team was hit harder by the new collective bargaining agreement than Toronto. After dealing away nearly their entire future for big names like Owen Nolan, Doug Gilmour and Brian Leetch, the Leafs were on the tip of the Stanley Cup Iceberg. One locked out season later, the Leafs were left with nearly double the salary cap and had to clear house. Last season they brought in home grown talents like Eric Lindros and Mike Peca, both of whom aren’t with the team anymore for whatever reason.

With the future in mind, former-GM John Ferguson stuck with his unheralded young gunners and then inexplicably signed Hal Gill, Pavel Kubina and Bryan McCabe to massive contracts to shore up his blue-line. Up front, he expected youngsters Matt Stajan, Kyle Wellwood, Jiri Tlusty and Alexander Steen to blossom in to the future of the team. Thus far, they have all been disappointments.

The team made two big splashes in the off-season were Jason Blake, who was later diagnosed with a mild form of Leukemia and goalie Vesa Toskala, who had enjoyed huge success as part of the San Jose Sharks. But Toskala has only 20 wins in 43 games played this season, and is allowing 2.68 goals against and a .906 save percentage. He went from a team like San Jose who plays incredible team defense, to a team like the Leafs who play virtually none. The Leafs have allowed 3.2 goals per game and 29.4 shots per game, but looked defensively sound against the Wings and Habs. Can they continue this?

The second half of the season gets much more physical, as teams try to bully in to the playoffs. And the Leafs have that in spades on the blue-line. Hal Gill is 6-foot-7, while Pavel Kubina is 6-foot-4. Tomas Kaberle has been a tremendous puck-moving force for the Leafs, but has missed Bryan McCabe who is close to returning from a hand injury. The Leafs simply have to learn how to protect Toskala better.

And Toskala himself seems to have made the adjustments in net to the extra pressure from opposing teams. Several seasons ago, the Sharks dealt Mikka Kiprusoff to the Flames and Kippy became one of the beast goalies in the league. The Leafs are hoping the same is true for Vesa, who will become the workhorse for the Leafs as they surge out of the basement and towards the NHL post-season.

But where is the scoring going to come from? Surely you jest if you believe that Darcy Tucker can keep up this magical three-game run. Mats Sundin is still in the top-15 for points leaders in the NHL with 23 lamp lighters and 35 helpers. The trade rumors have died down, and if the Leafs betting faithful have any playoff aspirations, then they have to be relieved to a certain degree. Mats has been the only consistent scoring threat on the ice, shortly followed by Nik Antropov with 42 points, then Jason Blake with 35 points.

The problem is that the Leafs don’t’ really have anymore attributes to trade away at the deadline. They are desperately in need of some character guys like Michael Peca, which makes his unseemly departure from Toronto even more perplexing.

The hope is that Vesa Toskala can put this team on his back, and that Bryan McCabe has had time to break out of his terrible funk while being on the shelf. In all seriousness, the playoffs are aren’t a complete stretch if the latter happen. With 55 points, the Leafs are currently six points out of eighth place.

Boston is sure to collapse even further, while Carolina, Florida and the New York Islanders don’t have the punch to make it. That leaves a foot race between Buffalo (60 points), Atlanta (58 points) and Toronto (55 points) for the last and final playoff spot. Keep an eye on these underdogs because they Leafs have been known to surge in the second-half.

If we’ve learned anything from the 2007 upset of Appalachian State Upset in NCAA Football, it’s not to take seemingly casual markers lightly. And the current play of Darcy Tucker is that moment for the Leafs. Take a flier on the Leafs, or any of your favorite NHL underdogs, in our NHL futures to win the Stanley Cup, or make the Finals. And, as always, check back to the locker room often for my Furious NHL Free Picks and player rankings.

On Tap for Toronto This Week:

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo Sabres (2/13)

NY Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (2/14)

Buffalo Sabres vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (2/16)

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