Up to NFL Betting Trends

posted January 16, 2008 at 11:22 in NFL Betting Trends

The XBOX 360 simulation of the San Diego/Indianapolis game foresaw a win/cover by the home team with the ‘Total’ going just Over the posted number. Indianapolis closed as an 11-point home favorite with the ‘Total’ set at 47 at BetUS NFL betting. The shocking 28-24 SU win by San Diego cashed all Chargers tickets ATS and also brought in a nice return for all those that took a stab on the Chargers $$$-line. The 52-combined points by both clubs had Over bettors grinning from ear-to-ear after the dust cleared. The XBOX 360 game sim called for a 35-14 final score in favor of Head Coach Tony Dungy’s Colts, and it called for a higher scoring game. The Colts were the only favorite the XBOX 360 game sim felt was a stone cold lock this past weekend, so it was very disappointing to see how this game actually turned out.

The game sim came out smoking in this one as it called for a long range TD strike from QB Peyton Manning to open up the scoring in this one, and that’s exactly what happened when Manning found TE Dallas Clark for a 25-yard pass and catch for the first points of the game. We felt real good after the 1st quarter with the Colts holding a 7-0 lead as predicted, but it was all downhill from there. Instead of capitalizing on a number of turnovers like the game sim projected, the Chargers hung around enough and only found themselves down three points at the half.

To make matters worse for Colts backers, the Chargers struck quick to capture the lead for the first time when QB Philip Rivers found WR Chris Chambers for a 30-yard strike to take a 4-point lead just three and a half minutes into the 3rd quarter. The Colts then retook the lead when Manning found WR Reggie Wayne for a 9-yard TD reception, but San Diego took back all the momentum on the last play of the 3rd quarter when QB Rivers found a wide-open RB Darren Sproles and he scampered 56-yards to pay dirt to give the Chargers the lead heading into the final quarter of the game. We all know exactly what happened to the Colts in the last quarter of the season, so there’s really no need to rehash the bad memories. Bottom line: the Colts choked this one away and got beat by a team playing with its back-up QB and back-up RB’s.

XBOX 360 Simulation

SAN DIEGO	0	7	0	7	14
INDIANAPOLIS	7	21	7	0	35

Official Game

SAN DIEGO	0	7	14	7	28
INDIANAPOLIS	7	3	7	7	24

Game simulation = Black

Official game = Yellow

QB Peyton Manning: 15/22 200 Yards 2 TD 1 INT QB Rating 108.1

QB Peyton Manning: 33/48 402 Yards 3 TD 2 INT QB Rating 97.7

- Mr. “Cut that meat!!” had a huge day passing the ball, but his pair of INT’s in the red zone brought back memories of his poor efforts from big games in the past.

QB Philip Rivers: 22/32 273 Yards 2 TD 3 INT QB Rating 76.7

QB Philip Rivers: 14/19 264 Yards 3 TD 1 INT QB Rating 133.2

- Philip Rivers put forth a masterful game, but he needs to learn to ignore all the heckling on the road.

RB Joseph Addai: 13 rushes for 83 Yards 3 TD 6.4 YPR

RB Joseph Addai: 13 rushes for 43 Yards 0 TD 3.3 YPC

- The game sim grossly inflated Addai’s abilities here, and his ineffectiveness was a huge reason the Colts lost outright.

RB LaDainian Tomlinson: 13 rushes for 54 Yards 4.2 YPR

RB LaDainian Tomlinson: 7 rushes for 28 Yards 4.0 YPC

- LT hyper extended his knee early and was a non-factor for a majority of the game.

TE Brandon Manumaleuna: 2 receptions for 55 Yards 1 TD

TE Brandon Manumaleuna: 1 reception for 3 Yards 0 TD

- TE Gates played hobbled throughout the entire game, which minimized Manu’s chances.

WR Reggie Wayne: 8 receptions for 92 Yards 11.5 YPC

WR Reggie Wayne: 7 receptions for 76 Yards 1 TD 10.9 YPC

- The game sim was spot on for WR Wayne’s effort for this match-up.

XBOX 360 Simulation

	SAN DIEGO	INDIANAPOLIS
TOTAL OFFENSE	318	300
RUSHING YARDS	57	100
PASSING YARDS	261	200
1ST DOWNS	14	10
TOTAL YARDS	401	399
TURNOVERS	4	1
3RD DOWN CONVERSION	5/8 62%	4/7 57%
RED ZONE PERCENTAGE	0-10%	2-2 100%
RED ZONE TD'S	0	2
RED ZONE FG’S	0	0
PENALTIES	3-15	1-5
TIME OF POSSESSION	15:56	16:08

Official Game

	SAN DIEGO	INDIANAPOLIS
TOTAL OFFENSE	411	446
RUSHING YARDS	99	44
PASSING YARDS	312	402
1ST DOWNS	20	29
TOTAL YARDS	544	622
TURNOVERS	1	3
3RD DOWN CONVERSION	6/10 60%	3/11 33%
RED ZONE PERCENTAGE	2/2 100%	1/3 33%
RED ZONE TD’S	2	1
RED ZONE FG’S	0	0
PENALTIES	10-79	5-54
TIME OF POSSESSION	29:39	30:21

The Game sim felt that Indianapolis would breeze to a comfy home win and cover in this spot, but that just wasn’t the case. The Colts looked rusty, while the Chargers looked to be playing with more purpose. They wanted it more, and it was obvious to see considering they sealed the deal with back-up QB Billy Volek and back-up RB’s Michael Turner and Darren Sproles. The simulation was incorrect in projecting the Colts to have the better day on the ground, and the Chargers to have the better game through the air. It was also wrong in projecting the Colts to win the turnover battle as the Chargers did an excellent job pressuring Manning and company and forcing the unit to cough the ball up three times. The Colts won the battle for time of possession as predicted, but they came up short in converting 3rd down opportunities while SD excelled, and they failed in 2 out of 3 attempts in the red zone.

All in all, the game simulation produced a winner with the ‘Total’ (Over) but a loser on the spread (Colts). However, I’m still left wondering what might have been had WR Marvin Harrison not fumbled the ball at the SD 22 with the Colts already up 7-0 and looking for more in the 1st quarter.

Be sure to stop by BetUS next week for the XBOX 360 simulation between the San Diego Chargers and New England Patriots...

> > Check Super Bowl Odds Here

The 2007 NFL betting season is here in full force! If you like to bet on the NFL, you are in the best possible place for online betting. The BetUS sportsbook has NFL odds up on a ton of futures, and you will also find NFL lines up for early games as well. Join BetUS today and we'll help guide you right through to Super Bowl XLII and beyond!