Posted on 1/18/2008 6:51:57 PM

NFL Football Betting – LaDanian Tomlinson’s Rushing Yards

By Charles Jay

LaDanian Tomlinson led the NFL with 1474 yards in the 2007 season. How much will he get in this, the AFC Championship Game, where his San Diego Chargers are 13.5-point underdogs to the New England Patriots, as per the BetUS NFL betting odds?

BetUS NFL Betting Props

AFC Championship Game - January 20

LaDANIAN TOMLINSON

Over 70.5 rushing yards -120

Under 70.5 rushing yards -120

Tomlinson had 18 rushes for 43 yards against New England earlier this season, in a game his team lost 38-14. Last season in the playoffs he had 123 yards on 23 carries in the 24-21 home loss. Tomlinson averaged a little more than 92 yards per game in the regular season. Can it reasonably be expected that the Patriots can hold him to less than that?

Certainly.

Why?

a) His hyperextended left knee will slow him. Of course, he's playing anyway, or rather, I'm assuming that understanding the magnitude of the game, he's going to do everything he can to play, despite missing some practice this past week.

b) Lorenzo Neal isn't playing. Neal has been his "seeing eye dog" as a lead blocker negotiating through NFL defensive lines, and even though L.T. has played plenty without him, and Andrew Pinnock has done a good job, it still could make a bit of a difference, because Neal was generally regarded as the best in the business. Remember, we're looking for incremental things here.

c) Michael Turner and Darren Sproles are VERY capable in backup roles, as the Chargers' staff knows, and they wouldn't hesitate to go with those guys if they needed to, or to just take a little pressure off Tomlinson and his knee.

d) The Patriots could get out to an early lead and make his rushing less of a factor.

e) As a 13.5-point underdog, there is a reasonable chance that Tomlinson's team could be playing from behind.

f) New England's game plan is that they want to make Phillip Rivers or backup Billy Volek throw to beat them. That means one thing - putting a stop to the running attack. That, in turn, means special attention paid to Tomlinson.

g) It has been done with a reasonable degree of regularity. Tomlinson may have won a rushing title this year, but he had wild fluctuations in his performance. In seven of the 16 games, he was held to a figure that is lower than the over/under posted at BetUS. That's 44% of his games.

We think these factors will ad up to an "under." That's UNDER 70.5 yards for L.T., as it is posted in the BetUS NFL betting props.

JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 70.5 YARDS (-120) **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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The 2007 NFL betting season is here in full force! If you like to bet on the NFL, you are in the best possible place for online betting. The BetUS sportsbook has NFL odds up on a ton of futures, and you will also find NFL lines up for early games as well. Join BetUS today and we'll help guide you right through to Super Bowl XLII and beyond!

(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)