Posted on 1/18/2008 3:37:11 PM

NFL Betting Action – NFC Championship Tilt – Giants at Packers

By Eric Williams

Okay, BetUS.com NFL bettors, if you listened to my sound advice last week, in the BetUS.com Locker Room, when I correctly predicted a New York Giants victory over the Dallas Cowboys, you’re obviously a happy camper this week.

For those bettors who may not have gotten a chance to read last week’s NFL Free Picks article – or just decided to bet on the Cowboys anyway – this NFC Championship game between the Giants, (12-6 SU, 12-6 ATS, 8-10 O/U) and Green Bay Packers, (14-3 SU, 13-3-1 ATS, 13-4 O/U) is another excellent opportunity to increase the NFL bank roll with what I believe is an absolutely simple selection.

Let me explain.

Last week’s matchup between the ‘Boys and G-Men was a ‘no-brainer’ in my estimation. Although I predicted the Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl out of the NFC in my annual NFL preseason Picks article, I emphatically changed that selection once the Giants were paired up against the Cowboys after beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24-14 in the their NFC wild card showdown nearly two weeks ago.

The facts for me were quite simple. The Cowboys looked absolutely atrocious over the regular season’s final three weeks, while the Giants came into the contest playing their best football of the entire season in losing to the New England Patriots 38-35 in their regular season finale before beating the Buccaneers in the playoffs … which brings me to this matchup against the Packers.

While the Packers are also playing their best football of the season and will be playing at home, they will be facing a Giants team that will certainly give them a stiffer test than the one the Seattle Seahawks put up against them in losing 42-20 last week.

I won’t get into the team’s Week 2 matchup which the Packers easily won in New York 35-13 for one simple reason – neither club is the same team that entered that contest.

After winning all season on the strength of Brett Favre’s passing, the Packers have developed a pretty nice rushing attack with Ryan Grant getting the bulk of the carries while New York has also seen their rushing attack blossom in a big way with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw forming one of the league’s most productive duos.

Now, I could sit here all day and throw out a bunch of meaningless statistics about both teams as they enter this contest, but I won’t – because all of those stats are going to be meaningless come game day.

The main factor that will decide the outcome of this contest is simple – desire.

Here is a look at the game’s Key Trends, followed by my analysis and NFL Betting Free Pick.

Key Giants Trends

The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games as an underdog.

The Giants are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff road games.

Key Packers Trends

The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.

The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

The Packers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Key Totals Trends

The Under is 4-0 in Giants last four games as a road underdog.

The Under is 4-0 in Giants last four games in January.

The Over is 6-0 in Packers last six games following a S.U. win.

The Over is 4-0 in Packers last four games as a home favorite.

Key Head-to-Head Trends

The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.

The Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Analysis: I expect the Giants’ spectacular front four to limit Grant while harassing Favre into at least one turnover while getting another fine performance from their own quarterback Eli Manning.

I know three-fourths of the country is expecting the Packers to win this contest based on the lore of their famed ‘Frozen Tundra’ and the legend of Brett Favre but I’m here to say the Giants and Manning are going to ‘shock the world’ by marching into Green Bay and onto Lambeau Field - before walking away victorious.

Heck, even if the Giants don’t win this contest, the good news for bettors is that they most certainly will not lose by eight points. Take the Giants whether you like them or not and you’ll be jumping for joy come late Sunday evening.

NFL Free Picks: Giants 21 Packers 17

06:30 PM EST NFL Betting Odds

New York Giants +7½ -105

Green Bay Packers -7½ -115

Over 42 -110

Under 42 -110

> > Check NFC Championship Odds

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