posted January 16, 2008 at 21:59 in NFL Betting Trends

If you bet on the NFL, you’ll already know what the Jacksonville Jaguars appear not to have understood when they played the Patriots last week and lost handily. It would appear as though the Jags game plan had but one goal: do not get beat deep, and especially not by Randy Moss. While this kind of thinking is understandable if your goal is to lose the game, but still be able to say you weren’t beaten by the most obvious of New England weapons, it did not, nor will it this week for San Diego, save Jacksonville from the same fate as every other opponent so far this year.

San Diego Chargers +14 at New England Patriots –14: Total 47.5

Sure, you can take away the long bomb, but you simply can’t expect to divert so many of your resources to doing it that you leave Tom Brady with all day to throw short and intermediate passes. He will eat you alive. What the Jags did is allow Brady to set one of the easiest records he has ever set. By going 26 of 28, Brady set not only a playoff record for completion percentage in a game with at least 20 passes thrown, he set an all time NFL record, and could easily have gone 28 for 28. The Chargers will have to play smarter, but still, taking away from the passing game will open up lanes for the underrated Patriots rushing game.

AFC Championship Game: Sunday, January 20 at 3 p.m. EST

Once that running game gets going, Tom Brady becomes even more dangerous out of the pocket with his play-action attempts. The only time the Chargers will be able to an extra defender in the box is on short yardage plays, and even then, Belichick could very well call a pass play, knowing he has a very good chance of picking up the first down if he takes the chance and has to go for it on fourth. If the Chargers can bring pressure up the middle, it will be their best chance to disrupt Brady’s rhythm, but not many teams can do this without getting burned downfield. In fact, no team has done it successfully for more than a play or two this season.

This game does not look very good on paper for the San Diego Chargers and if football betting is something you do to put more excitement into the game, this 14-point spread has to be a little intimidating. From the looks of these two teams, however, the chances are better that you’ll be more excited and stand a better chance at winning your wager with the BetUS sportsbook if you lay some on the Pats. If the line is a little large for your liking, try teasing it a few points, giving you a better chance to increase your bankroll.

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