Posted on
1/19/2008 9:00:36 PM
NFL Football Betting – Brett Favre’s Passing Yards
By Charles Jay
The Green Bay Packers lived solely on Brett Favre's arm, at least for half of this NFL season. So as the NFC Championship Game approaches, a game where the Packers are a 7.5-point favorite in the BetUS NFL betting odds, how will his own personal numbers hold up?
BetUS NFL Betting Props
NFC Championship Game -- January 20
BRETT FAVRE
Over 250.5 passing yards -120
Under 250.5 passing yards -120
Favre threw for 4155 yards this season. That's his third-highest season total in his 17-year career. Still, it is just 260 yards a game. So here, to grab the "over" on this one, we'd be looking for Favre to sustain that, or come very close, against a defense that has gotten its team to the NFC title game and in weather that might amount to a minus-10 degree wind chill factor in Green Bay.
Let's take a closer look at Favre's passing yards and how they were impacted when Ryan Grant firmly established himself as the go-to back for Green Bay.
Before Grant came on the scene, Favre had an average of 286 yards. Then he went on a nice run with Grant, tallying 328 yards a game over the next five. Let's throw out the Dallas game, where Favre left with an injury, and the season finale against Detroit, where he played sparingly. In the other four games, against Oakland, St. Louis, Chicago and Seattle, and when the elements might have figured into some of it, he averaged 204 yards. In the process of scoring 42 points against Seattle in last week's playoff game, Favre threw for only 173 yards.
I don't know that he will wind up exceeding or even approaching all season averages against a Giants team that has played inspired defense on the road in winning nine straight. Earlier in the year, Favre did throw for 286 yards against New York at the Meadowlands, but there is little question the conditions were more favorable there than they will be here. Plus, Favre now knows that the running game can do a lot of the work for him. It certainly did last week, when Grant ran for 201 yards. Because of the pass rush he'll be facing, one would expect Favre to go with a lot of short passes, and it will be up to the Giants to tackle those receivers after they make their catches.
We don't think Favre will reach this threshold. We're going UNDER the 250.5 passing yards, as it is posted in the BetUS NFL betting props.
JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 250.5 YARDS (-120) ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)