Posted on
1/18/2008 5:56:05 PM
NFL Playoff Betting – NFC Championship Preview
By Tim Furious
“Eli is taking us to the promised land!” At least that’s what the Giants fans are clamoring for. Before that, however, the New York Giants have to go through Lambeau Field and Brett Favre. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS against the Giants in their past five games, and thoroughly dismantled Tom Coughlin’s boys earlier this season in a 35-13 drubbing. But if we’ve learned anything from the past month of football, it’s that you can not bet so feverishly against Eli Manning.
New York Offense vs. Green Bay Defense
Green Bay’s defense completely shut down a punchy Seattle offense that relies on the pass. The Giants present a much more balanced attack, and it all begins with Brandon Jacobs. The Packers have given up 103.1 rushing yards per game, and Jacobs is averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Ahmed Bradshaw, who spells Jacobs, is a speedy and shifty runner who makes defenders miss. Both will have success against a strong front-seven for Green Bay Though Aaron Kampman and company will bend, they won’t break.
The Green Bay defense is predicated on speed, and puts pressure on the quarterback and running-back to fight for yards. But Jacobs changes everything because of his immense size. He is rarely brought down in the backfield and wears down defenses as he opens up rushing lanes for himself. Standing at 6-foot-4 and 265 pounds, Jacobs will be the key element in the Giants offensive attack.
Eli Manning has been impressive in the past month of football but has only averaged 177.5 passing yards in his past four games. During that span he has totaled 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The secondary for Green Bay is talented enough to contain Toomer and a limping Plaxico. Bet on hard-hitting Atari Bigby imposing himself on this receiving corps.
In coverage, A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett are smart and athletic, and will have no problem taking away the flats as a passing option for Manning. It will be a struggle for points in this cold matchup, and Eli has never been in a bigger pressure cooker than this one. How he copes in the face of insurmountable odds on the road, in the cold, and at Lambeau may define the early part of his career.
Green Bay Offense vs. New York Defense
Ryan Grant emerged at mid-season to virtually save the Green Bay Packers ghastly rushing attack. Averaging 5.1 yards per carry on the season, Grant ran roughshod over an impressive Seattle defense for 201 rushing yards and three scores last weekend. It is apparent that Mike McCarthy trusts Grant with his offense. After two fumbles in the first quarter last week, McCarthy kept the ball in Grant’s capably hands. The Green Bay betting backers were thusly rewarded with an outstanding performance.
Grant’s play has made life much easier for Brett Favre. The Packers average 271.0 passing yards per game and 27.2 points. The Giants surrender 207.3 passing yards per game, and are vulnerable to a never-say-die playmaker like Favre who bootlegs broken plays in to considerable gains. Brett continually spreads the ball around that it makes it hard for secondaries to matchup their personnel. Corey Webster may shut down Greg Jennings effectively, but that will leave Donald Driver or James Jones in favorable matchups. This game will be a nightmare for the Giants secondary.
The kicking game of Green Bay is what will propel them to victory. Mason Crosby has a brutally strong foot and is familiar with the turbulent winds of Lambeau. If the Giants are able to hold the Packers out of the red zone on certain drives, Crosby can chip the field-goal with relative ease.
NFL Betting Trends
-NYG are 6-1 ATS in their past 7 games
-NYG are 5-0 ATS in their past 5 games on the road
-Total has gone UNDER in 8 of the NYG last 9 road games
-Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in their past 5 games at home
-Green Bay is 4-1 SU in their past 5 games when playing NYG
Final Verdict
It’s undeniable that Manning has been on a tear since the tilt against New England. But the journey ends here. The only thing that can eclipse the unimaginable season of Manning is Brett Favre’s own brand of magic. The Giants rumbled for 42 points in a blizzard against Seattle. They should have no problem racking up a similar point total against the Giants.
Both teams have been amazing against the spread, but the expectations on Manning will cause him to make the errors we are accustomed to seeing from him. Brett Favre’s record in cold weather games is an unthinkable 43-5 at home. Expect Favre’s mental tenacity and experience to be the deciding factor as Green Bay covers the spread and rewards their betting faithful.
New York Giants (10-6) vs. Green Bay Packers (13-3)
Sunday, January 20th --- Lambeau Field, Green Bay --- 6:30pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Green Bay -7 (43.5)
NFL Playoff Free Picks: NYG 24 Green Bay 34
> > Check NFL Playoffs Odds Here
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