Posted on
1/11/2008 11:31:53 AM
NFL Postseason Wagering – Can Jaguars Hand Patriots First Loss?
By Eric Williams
While the New England Patriots, (16-0 SU, 10-6 ATS, 11-5 O/U) have just completed the first 16-0 undefeated regular season in NFL betting history, they will be facing a Jacksonville Jaguars, (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS, 12-4-1 O/U) team that could make their wonderful accomplishment go ‘poof’ in the blink of an eye.
The Jaguars are feeling – and playing confident football – after beating the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-29 last week on the road to become the first team in NFL history to beat the Steelers at home twice in the same season.
While everyone knows that Patriots have had a record-setting offensive season, they will be facing a tough Jacksonville defense that ranked 10th in scoring defense, allowing 19.0 points per game.
Jacksonville also ranked seventh in overall offense, averaging 357.4 yards and 25.7 yards per game, thanks in large part to the team’s No.2 rushing offense which averaged 149.2 yards per game behind the rushing of veteran Fred Taylor and youngster Maurice Jones-Drew who combined to rush for 1,970 yards this season.
Jones-Drew, in particular almost single-handedly beat the Steelers last week, scoring on a 43-yard swing pass and a 10-yard run and also returning a kickoff 96 yards to set up Taylor's 1-yard TD run and set the tone on Jacksonville’s first possession.
Taylor rushed for over 104 yards in each of his last five regular-season games and finished the regular season with 1,202 and a career-best 5.4 yards per carry average.
New England may be more susceptible to the run right now that at any point of the regular season, allowing an average of 124.8 rushing yards and 4.9 per carry in five December games.
The Patriots fielded the league’s No. 1 offense during the regular season, averaging 411.2 yards and 36.8 points per game and the fourth-best defense, allowing 288.3 yards and just 17.1 points per game.
Quarterback Tom Brady threw for an NFL-record 50 touchdown passes, but the Patriots struggled nearly all season with inconsistency rushing the ball, ranking 13th in that category, averaging 115.6 yards per game on the ground.
Here is a look at the game’s Key Trends, followed by my NFL Betting Free Picks.
Key Jaguars Trends
The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a S.U. win.
Key Patriots Trends
The Patriots are 8-2-1 ATS in their last eleven playoff home games.
The Patriots are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
The Patriots are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 games in January.
Key Totals Trends
The Over is 6-0-1 in Jaguars last seven games following a S.U. win.
The Over is 8-0 in Jaguars last eight games as a road underdog.
The Under is 7-0 in Patriots last seven Divisional Playoff games.
The Under is 8-1-1 in Patriots last ten Saturday games.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
Analysis: I am absolutely amazed that this point spread is as high as it is, particularly after seeing the Jaguars’ spectacular defense. Not only am I certain the Jaguars will cover this ridiculous point-spread, but I genuinely believe they stand an excellent chance of winning this game outright. Either way, the Jaguars, plus the points, are the right pick.
NFL Free Picks: Jaguars +13 Points/Under 49.5 Total Points
08:00 PM EST NBA Betting Odds
Jacksonville Jaguars +13 -110
New England Patriots -13 -110
Over 49½ -110
Under 49½ -110
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