Posted on
12/13/2007 11:43:31 AM
NCAA Football Betting – Poinsettia Bowl Navy vs. Utah
By Charles Jay
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Navy gained just 287 yards on the ground but beat Army 38-3 as a 13.5-point favorite in Baltimore;. Utah had a seven-game losing streak snapped on November 24 when the Utes lost 17-10 to BYU as a 4.5-point dog.
ABOUT NAVY:
The Good News -- Navy, behind its powerful option attack, led the nation in rushing again this year, averaging 352 yards per game with 44 rushing touchdowns. The Middies are averaging 40 points per game, and have scored a point for every 11 yards gained.
The Bad News -- Navy had a weak defense, ranking 99th overall in the country, allowing 36.5 points per game and 48 touchdowns to opponents. And Paul Johnson, who has developed a reputation as one of the better coaches in the country, has left the program to accept the job at Georgia Tech.
NAVY TRENDS:
* NAVY is 20-10-1 ATS in its last 31 games as an underdog
* NAVY is 3-0 ATS in its last three bowl games
* NAVY has played seven of its last ten games OVER the total
* NAVY has scored 30 points or more in nine of 12 games this year
ABOUT UTAH:
The Good News -- Utah ranked 15th in the nation in defense, permitting only 20 touchdowns in 12 games. Derrell Mack leads a pretty good rushing attack, gaining 1128 yards this season.
The Bad News -- Quarterback Brian Johnson (10 TD's, 9 INT's) has struggled with inconsistency over a rough career that has been characterized by injuries, enough that he had to receive an extra year of eligibility from the NCAA. The Utes faced an option attack earlier in the season and gave up 334 yards on the ground to Air Force. And the offensive line has given up 28 sacks.
UTAH TRENDS:
* UTAH has won its last six bowl games SU
* UTAH is 5-1 ATS in its last six bowl games
* UTAH is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games
* UTAH is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games
* UTAH has played five of its last six games UNDER the total
THE BOTTOM LINE: Neither team is likely to get caught with its pants down, unprepared for post-season play. The recent bowl history illustrates as much. On paper, this may look like a blowout for Utah, which has a big statistical edge in the defensive unit and more offensive balance. Remember, Navy gave up huge point totals to the likes of North Texas (62) and Delaware (59), while the Utes gave up 28 less touchdowns. But the Navy option is problematic for everyone the team faces. And with offensive coordinator Ken Niumatalolo taking over as interim coach here, there is an important continuity that will exist. The offense is not likely to miss a beat. One other thing you can be assured of is that Navy will have a lot of support in San Diego and is not here to lay down,. They will be in this for the whole route. We'll grab the points with Navy, the 8.5-point underdog in the BetUS college football betting odds.
WHAT: The Poinsettia Bowl
WHO: Navy Midshipmen (8-4 SU, 4-7 ATS) vs. Utah Utes (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE: December 20, 9 PM EST at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego (grass)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: UTAH -8.5, Total 66.5
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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com loves to help people pick winners. He is a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)