Posted on
1/7/2008 6:21:42 PM
NCAA Football Wagering – LSU vs. Ohio State the QB’s
By Charles Jay
It's time to look at those football props in the BetUS Sportsbook.
The propositions I want to focus on involve the quarterbacks in this BCS Championship game, in which the LSU are a 3.5-point favorite in the BetUS college football betting odds.
Here they are:
Total Passing Yards
TODD BOECKMAN (OSU) +10.5 -125
MATT FLYNN (LSU) -10.5 -115
Total Completions
BOECKMAN OVER 16.5 -110
BOECKMAN UNDER 16.5 -110
Total Attempts
BOECKMAN OVER 27.5 -120
BOECKMAN UNDER 27.5 -120
Ohio State's QB is Todd Boeckman, who came in to take the place of Troy Smith, who won the Heisman Trophy and grabbed his first pro start at the end of the season for the Baltimore Ravens. Boeckman threw for 2164 yards on the season, which comes out to about 180 yards a game. He threw 12 interceptions on the year, but his season was split - six games apiece - between those teams that made it into bowl games and those who didn't. Against the teams who made it to a bowl, Boeckman threw for about 170 yards a game, so his numbers in that area held up relatively well. But in those games he threw nine TD's and nine interceptions, compared to 14 TD's and three INT's against the also-ran teams. Ohio State's backups threw just 31 passes this season.
On the other side, Matt Flynn threw for 2233 yards, also in 12 games. But the situation with him is somewhat different. Flynn was injured and couldn't play in the SEC title game. In his place stepped Ryan Perilloux, a sophomore who was been in and out of the doghouse with coach Les Miles. But Perilloux came through, eading LSU to its win over Tennessee and being named the player of the game by CBS, which televised it. Miles discovered he had not one but two quarterbacks who could thrive under pressure, if he didn;t know it already. In two starts this season, Perilloux completed 40 of 55 passes (73%) for 441 yards (eight yards an attempt) and four TD's. In 75 passes on the season he had 694 yards (9.3 an attempt) and eight TD's. He is productive, and that's just the beginning. Perilloux can run the ball better than Flynn; in fact, he ran for 1460 yards as a high school senior, on his way to a lot of national offensive player of the year awards, including one that came from USA Today.
My point is, now that Perilloux is established as someone who can play in a big game, and considering his mobility, I would fully expect that Les Miles has a package just for him that he is going to employ in this game. Not only that, he would not hesitate to insert Perilloux if Flynn was not playing well. while I would not expect them to split snaps, I would not be surprised at all to see Perilloux get plenty of action.
Since Ohio State really doesn't have someone to put in the game as a change-of-pace (Antonio Henton threw six passes and had 41 rushing yards), I would say it's a good bet that, barring injury, you're going to see Boeckman for the full route. That, I think, increases his chances for throwing for more yards. My own personal belief, which is that the Buckeyes may have to play from behind, amplifies this. That, and the idea that I don't believe Ohio State is going to control this game on the ground, also might push Boeckman well over his average of 14.5 completions per game and 22.7 attempts per contest, which plays into those related props as well. Don't get me wrong; Boeckman may not be altogether effective, but he is a very comparable quarterback to Flynn, and in fact was ranked 12th in the nation in passing efficiency (Flynn was 75th). I think you have some value with the following plays on propositions:
JAY'S PLAYS:
Completions
BOECKMAN OVER 16.5 -110
Attempts
BOECKMAN OVER 27.5 -120
Passing Yards vs, Flynn
TODD BOECKMAN (OSU) +10.5 -125
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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com loves to help people pick winners. He is a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)