Posted on 12/28/2007 11:01:35 AM

NCAAF Bowl Betting – TCU Horned Frogs vs. Houston Cougars

By Tim Furious

Preview The TCU Horned Frogs were pegged as a Cinderella heading in to this season, but stumbled throughout the season. This year’s Texas Bowl will pit a vaunted TCU rush defense against a Houston Cougars team that will be without their head coach, Art Biles, who left town for Baylor instead. How will the Cougars react without their leader guiding them against a pack of Horned Frogs vying for respect after a difficult season?

TCU Offense vs. Houston Defense

Quarterback Andy Dalton has simply made too many important mistakes this season for TCU to suddenly hand him the rock and hope he can win this game. Running-back Joseph Turner is a much safer bet to invest in when facing a Cougars defense that allows 142.8 rushing yards per game. Turner spearheads a strong rushing assault which gains 169.1 yards per game.

TCU lacks a marquee receiver, which will make coverage that more difficult for the inadequate Cougars. It sounds strange, but with Dalton’s ineffectiveness at quarterback, the Horned Frogs will trot out spread sets to throw the Cougars defense off balance and open up lanes for Turner underneath. Houston allows 223.8 passing yards per game, and will be challenged by Dalton very rarely in the game. For the betting community, that means low scores as Turner runs down the Houston front-seven, and the clock in the process.

Houston Offense vs. TCU Defense

TCU will win this game based on defense. Their stacked rushing defense surrenders only 109.4 rushing yards and employs a bend-don’t-break philosophy that is kept safe by Jason Phillips at linebacker. Houston has averaged 239.9 yards on the ground per game, but their opponents have been dreadful.

Houston may average 273.3 pass yards per game, but the fierce pass-rush of the Horned Frogs will force him in to mistakes. TCU allows only 19.2 points per game and creates a strong number of turnovers in their secondary. Houston’s NCAAF betting backers simply can not put stock in freshman quarterback Case Keenum to emerge as a big time player against this front-seven.

NCAA Football Betting Trends

-TCU is 5-6-1 ATS in their last 12 games

-Houston is 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games

-TCU is 3-1 ATS and 4-0 SU against Houston

Final Verdict

The Horned Frogs will put their aggressive and ferocious front-seven on full display as they roll up the Cougars and head in to the New Year hoping to right the wrongs of an injury riddled 2007.

TCU Horned Frogs (7-5) vs. Houston Cougars (8-4)

Friday, December 28th --- Reliant Stadium, Houston --- 8:00pm EST

Opening NCAA Football Line: TCU -3.5 (61.5)

NCAA Football Free Pick: TCU 27 Houston 21

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