Posted on 2/8/2008 5:26:35 PM

NBA Furious Free Picks – Boston vs. Minnesota

By Tim Furious

Boston Celtics (37-9) s. Minnesota Timberwolves (10-37)

Friday, February 8th --- Target Center, Minneapolis --- 8:00pm EST

NBA Betting Line: Boston -6.5 (189)

The two teams that pulled off the block-buster trade of the summer will lock horns tonight for another hard court war. Boston barely escaped with the victory in their 87-86 win in late January. Can these baby wolves bounce back and give the Celts another great game? It all comes down to Al Jefferson.

But Kevin Garnett will steal the headlines in this one, whether he plays or not. The chances are that KG will be sidelined by the abdominal strain that has put him on the shelf indefinitely. In what will be an emotional night for the Big Ticket, his 19.2 points per game will be missed as much as he is in Minnesota. Garnett ended a twelve year tenure in Minnesota this past summer, and though he will be itching to play in his old house, the Celtics won’t be stupid enough to risk his health for an emotional game. I’d bet he only gets maybe ten minutes in this game coming off the bench.

But back to Jefferson, who leads the Wolves with 21.5 points per game and 12.3 rebounds. The Wolves will have to attack the basket relentlessly and take advantage of the Garnett-less Celtics. Their 97.4 points against average with KG on the shelf is well above their 89.0 points against average over the season. With KG likely watching from the sidelines, this will be Jefferson’s chance to shine and show the Celtics exactly what they gave up on (not that I blame them).

Minnesota is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games, despite going 6-16 SU in their last 22. They have played well at home, and far above the expectations of the oddsmakers. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home. The Celtics may be 10-4 ATS in their past 14 games when playing Minnesota, but with KG out they are completely different team. More importantly, they are extremely vulnerable to a low-post threat like Jefferson without KG protecting the paint.

Take the points with Minnesota as they rally around a motivated Jefferson to cover against the Celtics. Minnesota got him at a cool $55 million for the next little while, which is a steal, quite frankly. You can also get a nice steal in what will definitely be a worthy way to spend your Friday night before you hit the streets.

NBA Free Pick: Minnesota +6.5 (OVER)

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