Posted on 12/7/2007 10:52:46 AM

Horse Wagering Trends - Padding Your Bankroll

By Michael Dempsey

National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers. Don't miss Wednesday's report where Michael will keep you up to date with track bias reports for the major circuits.

Thursday's late Pick 3 at the Big A came in about as chalky as it could have. It paid $15.40. We invested $18 after scratches. Ouch.

There is a chalk in the seventh race at the Big A on Friday so instead of playing the Pick 3 I'm going to go with a small $24 investment in the late Pick 4.

Today's featured race of the day is the $1 million Delta Jackpot, part of a big card tonight at Delta Downs in Vinton, Louisiana.

Today's Featured Race of the Day:

Delta Downs Race 8 Delta Jackpot S. G3 (9:47 ct)

#1 Bettron 10/1

#8 St. Joe 5/1

#6 Cave's Valley 6/1

#4 Z Humor 5/2

#1 Betatron earned the top last out speed fig with a sharp win against Alw-1 foes at Churchill. The colt stretches out for the first time here for Amoss barn that is 22% winners moving runners from sprint to route. The colt has enough pedigree to handle the distance, by Tale of the Cat out of a Seeking the Gold mare. Draws the rail and owns solid early and mid pace numbers. Mena figures to send him early and he may prove tough to run down of he can manage to get clear early.

#8 St. Joe dueled for the early lead and had the lead turning for home but hung to finish third in the G3 Iroquois, beaten three lengths for the top spot. Caught a main track at Churchill Downs that was favoring outside stalkers and closers. The winner of the race was Court Vision, who came back to win the G2 Remsen in his next outing on 11/24. Two back in the maiden ranks he handled #7 Racecar Rhapsody, who returned to graduate in his next start and then run a good third in the G2 Ky Jockey Club. Colt may end up going off at a decent price in this spot.

#6 Cave's Valley comes in here with a perfect 3 for 3 record for one of our favorite barns. Was a sharp winner last out in the $100K Dover at Del Park, taking the field gate to wire. A couple of sharp works on the morning tab and Trombetta excels with two year olds overall, hitting at a 30% clip. Colt is not quick enough to grab the early lead in this spot, but he showed two back he does not need the lead.

WAGERING

WIN: #1 to win at 9/2 or better.

EX: 1,8 / 1,4,6,8

TRI: 1,8 / 1,4,6,8 / 1,3,4,6,7,8

Aqueduct Late Pick 4

Starting in Race 6: $1: 1,6,8 / 5 / 4,7 / 2,5,6,10 = $24

AQU Race 6 Md $60,000 (2:48 et)

#6 Judiths Garden, #8 Ectoplasm, #1 Nullify

#6 Judiths Garden was sent off at 5/2 in a field of eight in his debut on the main track here on 11/21, checking in third. Tracked the early pace from the outside and finished well, beaten 1 3/4 lengths for the top spot. In good hands with Canet barn that is 4 for 13 (with a +ROI) with second time starters. Gelding has two sibs to race, both winners, top earner 2 for 9 Nearly Famous. Has plenty of pedigree to handle the stretch out to two turns.

#8 Ectoplasm tracked the early pace and came up short in the stretch last out against $75K maiden claimers, finishing over a turf course labeled as good. It was his first go for Galluscio, who took this guy for $50K from Dutrow out of his debut, also a third place finish. Returns to the dirt here and makes his second start off a 2 1/2 month break. Has six sibs that are winners, top earner Red Hot Helen ($103K), who was a 11 time winner in dirt sprints.

AQU Race 7 Alw $50,000N1X (3:16 et)

#5 Z Fortune

#5 Z Fortune prompted the early pace while three wide and drew clear in the stretch to a good looking maiden score in his debut. The colt did catch a main track that was slightly favoring speed. The fourth place finishers in the race was Alexandros, who returned to graduate in his next outing on 11/23. $80K purchase is out of the stakes winner Fortunate Faith ($252K), who has dropped five other winners. A couple of quick works on the morning tab since his unveiling. Looks tough here but not expecting to see much of a price.

AQU Race 8 Raise Heck S. (3:44 et)

#4 Frisk Her, #7 Your Flame in Me

#4 Frisk Her made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot but was no match for

#7 Your Flame in Me, catching a main track that was favoring inside speed. Filly was making her first start off a year layoff and figures to move forward off that effort. She makes her first start here for Contessa barn that is 20% winners (with a +ROI) with newcomers to the barn. The filly that beat her last out may get into a early pace duel here setting things up for her.

#7 Your Flame in Me drew clear to win the Lady Tak last out over our top pick but did benefit from the speed friendly racing strip. That start was her first go off a six month layoff. In good hands with MD based Trombetta barn that won with his first two shippers here last week. Her only loss was in the G3 Miss Preakness where she bobbled coming out of the gate. She fits well here but our top pick likely offers better value for the top spot.

AQU Race 9 Alw $50,000N1X (4:12 et)

#5 Belz, #2 Munition, #10 Stately Pegasus, #6 Stopbluffing

#5 Belz checked in third last out going six furlongs in his first start against winners Two back was an impressive maiden winner in his first start for Bush and first go off a six month layoff. The runner up and fifth place finisher exited that maiden race to win next out. Gelding has plenty of pedigree to handle the stretch out to two turns, by A.P. Jet out of a Chimes Band mare. Barn is 18% winners moving runners from sprint to route.

#2 Munition made a good late rally to finish a close up fourth last out on turf going a mile in his first start in NY and against state breds. The gelding held his own in open Alw-1 foes, checking in fifth two back at Churchill (beaten just 3/4 of a length) and three back ran a good third at Ky Downs. Barn has been live the past couple of months.

Live Longshots:

These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

AQU R1: #8 Romp 10/1

AQU R3: #6 Golden Opportunity 8/1

AQU R6: #1 Nullify 10/1

AQU R7: #7 Shot Gun Holiday 15/1

AQU R7: #1 Express to Thewest 30/1

AQU R9: #10 Stately Pegasus 10/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

MikeD

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