Up to Triple Crown Articles

posted December 3, 2007 at 18:35 in Triple Crown Articles

One of the trickiest aspects of handicapping is how to treat horses coming off layoffs, especially after months of rest.

There is no obvious answer, but an outstanding handicapper for the Daily Racing Form offers this insight:

“The theory that previous comeback attempts can accurately predict the future comeback tries is terribly flawed,” Steve Klein observed in his column Bottom Line several years ago.

“It is a cherished handicapping myth that I've never seen challenged in print. The problem is that the theory assumes that all layoffs are equal. They aren’t. Short layoffs aren’t usually a big deal.”

No matter the length of the layoff, there are several rules I follow:

The thoroughbred must have performed well in the past under similar circumstances, preferably winning right off a layoff. The trainer should have a high percentage in this category, at least 15 percent.

Routers have a better winning percentage than sprinters because the slower pace conserves energy.

Look for solid gate workouts, especially breezes at four or five furlongs. Horses returning off short layoffs from 30 to 60 days should show a four-furlong workout within seven days of racing. Those off 61 days to six months should have worked at five furlongs or longer within two weeks.

What happened in the last race? Did the horse perform well before being rested? Is the runner competitive coming off a layoff?

Has the horse raced at the track before? If not, it’s a plus to show a work or two at the oval. Warming up also helps the runner become more familiar with the surface.

Thoroughbreds returning after layoffs from two months to half a year run better than those rested longer.

“The stats on horses returning from layoffs of about a year are terrible," Klein says. “They yield the lowest return per dollar bet that I’ve seen from any test I’ve done.

“Don’t let the great trainer, the great jockey, or the fast workouts fool you. The percentages dictate that you should try to beat horses returning from long layoffs, especially at low odds.”

While it’s tricky trying to handicap horses coming off long layoffs, what about second time off a layoff?

I prefer horses that showed speed and faded in the latest outing or closed well and came up short. That’s because, according to many experts, a horse may have needed a freshener and should improve next time out.

It’s always a good idea to check out body language in the paddock or post parade whether the runner is first or second time off a layoff. Does the thoroughbred look good? Sweating excessively is a negative, wasting energy.

You also might notice first-time front wraps. They could signal an injury, such as tendon or ligament problems, and the tape might cover enlarged ankles.

Trainers keep us guessing because cotton bandages also protect the animal from hitting itself. In most cases, back wraps protect the animal from cuts or scrapes and prevent burns from track surfaces.

First-time front wraps take some getting use to since they can slow down a runner and throw a horse off stride. The winning percentage is really low. However, back wraps don’t seem to matter.

Many experts agree that a horse’s lucky number is 3 as in running third time off a layoff. That’s considered the most crucial start after a rest. And it makes no difference the distance.

Third time off a layoff is best, some say, provided the second start was a sprint and the runner performed well.

Third time off a layoff is best in routes, others say, when preceded by a pair of improving sprints.

I have no hard rule when it comes to distances, but the thoroughbred must show improvement in preceding races.

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