Posted on
1/15/2008 5:06:06 PM
Horse Betting Action – Best Laid Plans
By Brian Mulligan
One of the keys that horse bettors in this sport need to be successful is to accurately be able to visualize how a race figures to unfold, where each horse figures to be at certain junctures of the race, and to then project who will be fighting it out tooth and nail for all the money in the final strides.
Visualization is all fine and good, but another thing that horse bettors have to realize is that the best laid plans of mice and men seldom become reality.
When owners and trainers look at the entrants of any particular race, they are trying to figure out where their horse belongs in the pace scenario.
One of the books that was read by this novice decades ago intimated that a clever horse bettor should get close to the paddock and try to read the lips of the trainer and what he was instructing his rider directly before giving the boy a leg up on the horse.
This sound all nice and cozy but in reality, it was all bull. First off, there is not octane running through these horses and you never know for sure how a field will come away from the gate. If you as the trainer lock in your jockey to certain instructions, disaster is waiting on the other side of the curtain.
The best thing a trainer can tell a rider is any kind of special quirk a runner may have. He may not like to be niggled with from the get go and runs much better when allowed to do his thing early on.
The runner may be the kind of horse that needs to be pushed along early or he’ll lose his focus and attention on racing.
Or maybe a runner doesn’t like to run inside of rivals and won’t put out until he gets a chance to circle horses.
These are clues that a conditioner has to pass on and another reason why trainers can’t lock in strategy is the fact that riders will not listen.
Years ago I was in a fantasy basketball league with a bunch of race trackers, including trainers and jockeys. When one jockey was asked about instructions before a race he scoffed: “it doesn’t make a difference what is said because as soon as the gates open, everybody just goes as hard as they possibly can.”
Stories can be related from now until midnight about how a trainer instructed a rider to take back or bide his time early and then watch the jockey send to the lead right out of the gate and never look back.
When the jock met the trainer in the winner’s circle, do you think the trainer scolded him for not obeying or did he thank him for winning the race?
The bottom line is that rider will do whatever they want and they should. They are the pilots on vehicles going 40 miles and hour and there are no seatbelts on these animals.
On the other hand of the ledger is what riders can tell trainers about their charges after a workout or a race.
I once did a television show with Hall of Fame trainer Dick Mandella and asked him about how he handled those situations.
Back in the day, Mandella used to ride Fernando Toro a lot, and Toro had a reputation for being an excellent horseman.
Mandella told me that if he had to ask a jockey, who was on a horse for 70 seconds about what he thought, than Mandella’s 20 hours with the horse previously was a waste of time.
Sharp horse racing bettors have to try to project how a race will unfold, but they also have to think about contingency plans if things don’t break just right and if the horse they are contemplating betting on can adjust.
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