Posted on
2/8/2008 9:11:24 PM
Horse Wagering Trends - Padding Your Bankroll
By Michael Dempsey
National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers. Don't miss Wednesday's report where Michael will keep you up to date with track bias reports for the major circuits.
There is plenty of stakes action to be found around the country on Saturday. It is Louisiana Derby Preview Day at Fair Grounds. There are six stakes on the card at the New Orleans track.
We will tackle two of them here today along with the Essex ‘Cap from Oaklawn Park and the Correction ‘Cap at the Big A:
Fair Grounds Race 6 Mineshaft Hcp G3 (Post time 2:55 ct)
#5 Silver Lord
#7 Better Than Bonds
#2 Grasshopper
#6 Magna Graduate
#5 Silver Lord made his stakes debut a winning one, taking the Lou Cap last out over the main track here. The five year old was making just his fourth career start and earned a 103 Beyer in the victory. Has the recent form edge over the two high profile runners in here that are both coming off the bench. Steps into a tougher spot here but among the top three contender’s figures to offer the best value for the top spot. He is also entered in today’s Essex at OP.
#7 Better Than Bonds makes his first start off a three month break for Motion barn that is 22% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. We chased this guy most of ’07 trying to cash a ticket on him and he kept finding a way to finish second. Owns a solid pace profile throughout and Ramon picks up the call. Can be in the mix here with his best and likely goes off as the fourth betting choice in here.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 7/2 or better
EX: 5,7 / 2,5,6,7
TRI: 5,7 / 1,2,5,6,7 / 1,2,5,6,7
Aqueduct Race 8 Correction Hcp (Post time 3:49 et)
#1 Mulligatawny
#4 Spectacular Malibu
#5 Beau Dare
#3 Rite Moment
#1 Mulligatawny steps into stakes company here riding a four race win streak, all victories since Asmussen claimed her for just $25K last summer at the Spa. She is a perfect 2 for 2 on the inner, both of her wins coming against Alw-1 optional claimers. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and while she steps into a tougher spot here she is very sharp for a red hot barn and looks capable of making it five in a row.
#4 Spectacular Malibu sat out all of ’07 after a promising two year old campaign that included four starts including stakes win and as second in G3 company on the main track here in the Tempted. She has been prepping at Laurel for Trombetta barn that is 25% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff.
#5 Beau Dare went gate to wire last out to beat Alw-3 optional claimers, taking full advantage of a inner surface that was strongly favoring inside speed. Seven runners went gate to wire back on Dec. 26.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 2/1 or better
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,5
TRI: no play
Fair Grounds Race 9 Risen Star S. G3 (Post time 4:28 ct)
#2 Blackberry Road
#8 Pyro
#11 Z Fortune
#9 Signature Move
#2 Blackberry Road made his three year old debut last out in the G3 Lecomte and while he could not go with the winner #11 Z Fortune in the stretch it was a good runner up finish. The $235K Keeneland purchase is a half bro to Vindication ($681K), True Reason ($319K), and Scipion ($194K). Borel sticks and breaking from the two hole the jock should be able to save plenty of ground. Drilled a bullet work on 2/3 over the surface and I’m hoping that puts a bit more zip into this guy as there is not that much pace signed up to go here and we don’t want this colt as far back as he was in his last two starts. Among the top three logical contenders this guy is going to likely offer the best value.
#8 Pyro makes his three year old debut here for Asmussen barn that has been on a roll here, hitting at a 27% clip. Was fractious at the gate in the BC Juvie, was bumped coming out of the gate and had to check while in between foes on the first turn. Came three wide in the stretch and finished well over the sloppy going but was unable to catch War Pass. Was a solid second behind that foe in the G1 Champagne two back as well and again did not have the best of it as far as trips go as the winner went gate to wire. Barn is 24% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. Not too worried about this guy being too far back, he is quick enough to get into good position. The 3/1 ML looks fair enough but price is likely going to be much shorter.
#11 Z Fortune drew a tough post but has enough tactical speed is may not pose a problem. Hard to knock this NY bred who is now 3 for 3 after taking the Lecomte in his first start out of the Big Apple. Only his stablemate owns a higher last out speed fig.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 2,8,9,11
TRI: 2,8 / 2,8,9,11 / 2,3,7,8,9,11
Oaklawn Park Race 9 Essex Hcp G3 (Post time 5:02 ct)
#2 Gouldings Green
#8 Silver Lord
#1 Prom Shoes
#3 Jonesboro
#2 Gouldings Green looks primed for a good effort here after a runner up finish against allowance company behind Spotsgone off a two month break. Seven year old is a three time G3 winner who spent most of ’07 racing on synthetic surfaces. Owns solid late pace numbers and running style of this guy fits the way this track has been playing through most of the meet. In good hands with Reinstedler barn and he has a win over he main track here.
#8 Silver Lord is my top pick in today’s Mineshaft at fair Grounds although it looks like he may end up running here, at least his last work was over the main track here on 2/2. Was a sharp winner last out in the Lou Cap at Fair Grounds and still appears to have plenty of upside as he makes just his fifth career start here.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 1,2,3,8
TRI: 2,8 / 1,2,3,8 / 1,2,3,7,8,9
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