Posted on 2/12/2008 5:11:42 PM

NHL Furious Free Picks 2008 – Tuesday Edition, Part 1

By Tim Furious

Montreal Canadiens (29-18-9) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (23-27-6)

Tuesday, February 12th --- St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa --- 7:30pm EST

NHL Betting Line: Tampa Bay -115

Oh how the not-so-mighty have fallen. Montreal had everyone in Quebec buzzing about a top-seed in the playoffs…and then they went 2-4 SU in their past six. Not only have they fallen out of the Top Shelf Rankings (they’re middle shelf now), they are giving up valuable real estate to Ottawa, who is 5 points ahead of them in the standings. Now they are underdogs to Tampa Bay, a team with only 23 wins this season.

Tampa has been anything but steady in their own building, going 2-8 SU in their past 10 home games. The defense is not anything close to what it used to be, allowing 3.30 goals per game on 27.61 shots per game. The blame there goes squarely to Johan Holmqvist, who is allowing 2.94 goals per game and has only won 19-of-41 contests.

The dynamic duo of Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis has combined for 138 points this season, including 32 goals by Vinny. They still have no depth on this team, and that is something that will be difficult to deal with as Montreal has that in spades. Montreal needs to kick start themselves back in to a winning way, and matching up against a team that is struggling at home, and one that you’ve gone 7-2-0-1 SU in the last 10 with, is a surefire way to do so.

The Canadiens and Lightning games always get out of hand, because Tampa has difficulty matching up against a team that predicates itself on speed. Montreal is undersized, but Tampa does not have the man power required to dominate them physically. Bet on Montreal as the underdog in the OVER.

NHL Free Pick: Montreal -105

Detroit Red Wings (41-12-5) vs. Nashville Predators (29-22-6)

Tuesday, February 12th --- Sommet Center, Nashville --- 8:00pm EST

NHL Betting Line: Detroit -150

It’s taken me a long time to write about Nashville playing at home, because I really miss their old stadium. And how can I not? It was called the Gaylord Arena! Whoa is me. And whoa are the Red Wings who have lost three straight and now have to contend with one of the hottest teams in the West. Detroit has typically dominated Nashville, by going 7-2-0-1 in their last ten games with the Preds, but they are skidding hard in to the ditches and need to turn things around.

Nashville is 4-2 SU in their past 6 games, but have not lost a game by more than one goal. The problem for Nashville has, and always will be, the disadvantage they have in the size department. They are a speed team, that relies on efficient passing and puck distribution to win games. That’s a large reason that their top point getter is Jason Arnott, who only has 50 points this season.

Dan Ellis has been phenomenal in goal, with 13 wins in 24 starts, averaging only 2.26 goals against. But overcoming a Detroit team that averages 3.31 goals per game on 34.45 shots is a lot to ask from a backup. Nashville has the ability to score, but their undersized scoring lines will have a tough time against the punchy checking lines of Detroit, who can shut down Nashville by crashing them against the boards all night long.

These games have typically been tight, but Detroit will edge out the victory in this one. But on the UNDER if you know what’s good for you. Detroit will play conservatively in order to cut down the mistakes that have been thwarting their winning ways this season. Despite their recent losing streak, Detroit is still 11-2 SU in their past 13 road contests. Bet on that trend to continue as they tame the Predators tonight.

NHL Free Pick: Detroit -150

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