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posted November 22, 2007 at 12:10 in NFL Articles

Preview

The Jets beat Pittsburgh and are riding a ripple of momentum towards Dallas as they take on the high-powered offense of the Cowboys. Kellen Clemens looks much better than Chad Pennington, but isn’t saying much. A cardboard cutout of Pennington playing quarterback would’ve looked better. Romo and The Original 81 are embarrassing opponents right now, and are coming in off a short week after blowing up Washington.

 

New York Offense vs. Dallas Defense

The Jets finally got it right last week. Granted, Pittsburgh came out flat and didn’t look like they wanted to play the game, but Thomas Jones finally got going and logged 117 yards on 3.9 yards per carry against the best rushing defense in the NFL. Jones will face a ferocious front-seven in Dallas that can overwhelm the Jets front-four and cut Jones down before he gets back to the line of scrimmage.

 

The truth is, however, that Dallas will put this game out of reach so quickly that Clemens will be forced to throw. Laveranues Coles is questionable this week, which is a shame because he could seriously expose this secondary opposite Jericho Cotchery. Without Coles, however, the Jets passing game, which averages a paltry 190.7 yards per game, will be unable to move the chains as Dallas shuts down the listless Jets receivers and stacks against the run.

Dallas Offense vs. New York Defense

The second best offense in the league clashes against the twenty-sixth ranked defense in the league. Tony Romo is spearheading a charge that averages 32.4 points per game, while the Jets usually only hold teams to 24.4 points against. The Jets defense is going to be in for a long day, considering how fearless Romo has been playing lately.

The Jets secondary is abysmal, though Darrelle Revis is showing signs of potential. The first-round pick has 53 tackles this year and will be chiefly responsible for holding down Terrell Owens. Good luck with that, Revis. Although Patrick Crayton is listed as questionable for the game, Sam Hurd is a suitable replacement. And you can’t forget about the versatile Jason Witten either.

With Dallas being limited to two or three receivers in this matchup, expect Wade Philips to give Marion Barber III and Julius Jones plenty of work this Thanksgiving. The smart betting investor should ignore the lack of production the Dallas rushing offense has accumulated over the past few weeks. New York allows 148.2 yards against, and are the fourth worst rushing defense in the league. Bet on Barber pounding the Jets in to dust opening Romo for some big play scores to Owens.

NFL Betting Trends

-NYJ are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games

-Dallas is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games

-total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas’s last 6 games at home

-NYJ are 0-5 SU in their last 5 road games

Final Verdict

There is no betting investor in the country that is dumb enough to think that the Jets victory over Pittsburgh is indicative of any improvement. Dallas always plays well on Thanksgiving, and should be on fire in front of a rabid, turkey-hungry, home crowd.

There is no reason to bet against Tony Romo and Terrell Owens at this point. Between Marion Barber III, Owens and Romo, your betting dollars are safe in the hands of the Cowboys.

New York Jets (2-8) vs. Dallas Cowboys (9-1)

Thursday, November 22nd --- Texas Stadium, Dallas --- 4:15pm EST

Opening NFL Betting Line: Dallas -14 (47.5)

NFL Free Pick: NYJ 13 Dallas 31

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