Posted on
11/29/2007 5:53:21 PM
NFL Football Betting Trends – Jaguars at Colts
By Charles Jay
The Indianapolis Colts (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) find themselves in the position where if they do not beat the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) on Sunday, they will fall into a tie with the Jags in the AFC South. The two teams meet at the RCA Dome (artificial turf) in Indianapolis in a game that starts at 1 PM ET. In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Colts are listed at -6.5, with the total posted at 45 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* JAX has covered four of its last five games
* JAX has played five straight games OVER the total
* JAX has covered four of its last five road games
* JAX is 21-10-1 ATS in its last 32 as an underdog
* JAX has played five of its last six road games OVER the total
* INDY has covered six of its last eight games
* INDY has won 14 of its last 16 games SU
* INDY has played five of its last six games UNDER the total
* INDY has covered eight of its last 10 games at home
* INDY has won 14 of its last 15 home games SU
* JAX has covered four of the last six meetings
* INDY has won four of the last five meetings SU
* INDY has won five of the last six meetings at home
* Four of the last five meetings in Indy have gone UNDER the total
The sense of urgency should make this a very intense game. And we have seen that the Jaguars always get up for the Colts. Of course, the wind got taken out of their sails last time out, as David Garrard left with an injury and Indianapolis shut down the J-Ville offense (226 yards) en route to a 29-7 win that served as a source of embarrassment for Jacksonville. Now Quinn Gray is out of the lineup, and Garrard is back. The East Carolina grad threw for 296 yards against Buffalo last week, and is 65% accurate with nine TD's and no interceptions in 209 passes. Interestingly enough, Garrard, not regarded as a downfield passer, has a higher per attempt average than Peyton Manning (7.8--7.4). With Dwight Freeney out for the year, the Colts are missing one premier pass rusher that may have potentially forced Garrard into a mistake or two.
Jacksonville will have no picnic against a Colts defense that has surrendered just 3.9 yards a rush, but the Jags always have a fresh guy in there, with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combining for 1287 yards. The biggest challenge for the Jags is putting a handle on Joseph Addai (876 yards rushing) with defenders Marcus Stroud and Mike Peterson out.
But one must wonder if Marvin Harrison is really ready to come back and make a major contribution for the Colts (we're expecting him to be there). And Anthony Gonzalez, who had 105 yards receiving on Thanksgiving, will find things rougher against a Jags defense that holds opponents to less than 40% on third down conversions.
It's no shame if the Colts do not pull away. But highly-motivated Jacksonville, which has forced opponents to gain 19.5 yards for every point, has the ingredients to make a game of it. We'll take the Jags, the 6.5-point underdog in the BetUS NFL football betting odds.
BetUS NFL betting odds: INDIANAPOLIS -6.5, Total 45
NOTABLE STAT: The Colts have converted 48% on third down; the Jags have permitted 39.6% third down conversions
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: The Colts are 4-1 ATS at home this year, and 8-2 ATS in their last ten
(For more useful stats and trends, visit our special Matchup Tool)
JAY'S PLAY: JACKSONVILLE **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a member of the NFL too - that is, "not for long" if you don't get results. He is now a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)