Posted on
3/5/2008 5:31:58 PM
Bet on College Basketball - Mississippi State vs. Vanderbilt
By Robby Maddux
Mississippi State (20-8 SU, 13-12 ATS) vs. Vanderbilt (24-5 SU, 15-13 ATS)
Two of the three best teams in the SEC square off this evening at 8:00pm EST in Nashville and lurking is the money-making selection for the NCAA basketball betting crazies.
Mississippi State (+5) and No. 16 Vanderbilt (-5) are primed and ready to get down at Memorial Gym. Vandy is 18-0 SU (straight up) at home this season, and a win over the Bulldogs would help the Commodores in their quest for a No. 3 NCAA seed.
A victory would also make for the first undefeated season at home for the first time in 15 years and would match the school record for most regular-season wins.
The Commodores remained unblemished at home by knocking of then-No. 1 Tennessee 72-69 last Tuesday as the 2½-point underdogs, leaving them one victory short of their school record of 25 regular-season wins which was accomplished in 1992-93.
Home cooking has produced dominance SU, but Vandy has struggled to cash in front of its homies against stiff competition that's good on the road. The Commodores are just 3-9 ATS (against the spread) in their last 12 games at Memorial Gym versus a team with a winning away mark. And, Vandy is 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road percent of .600 or higher.
If Vandy is to win, they’ll need to bounce back from a 78-73 loss at Arkansas on Saturday. The Commodores were the 6½-point puppies in the defeat and the loss ended a seven-game SU SEC win streak.
However, they've been able to cash for the NCAA wagering fans supporting them when they play within their conference. Vandy has earned a payday in six of its last seven contests against SEC foes.
Another key to victory is the play of Vandy's Shan Foster, who's the front-runner for league player of the year honors, and he's Vandy’s career scoring leader with 1,895 points. Foster has been held to 12.7 points in three career games against Mississippi State, who clinched their fourth SEC West title in six seasons by beating Florida 68-59 as the 3½-point dogs on Saturday.
The Bulldogs are arguably the most physical team in the SEC. Foster will get bumped and banged around all evening so the senior guard needs to equal physicality's against Mississippi State's junior point guard Jamont Gordon.
Gordon, a Nashville native, is one of the best all-around players in the country and will be a tough matchup for Foster because of his size, strength and ability to put the ball on the floor. At 6'4'' and 230 pounds, Gordon is able to muscle his way into the lane. The Foster-Gordon matchup will be crucial to the outcome.
Mississippi State is 6-2 ATS in their last eight roadies and the Bulldogs have won six of eight against the Commodores SU, including two of three in Nashville in that span.
BetUS NCAA basketball odds list Vandy the luke-warm 5-point favorites with a game total of 144. The Commodores will be backed by its faithful, and with a school record on the line, expect Vandy to come out strong with guns blazing. A fast start will be enough to push them to a cover win.
NCAA Basketball Free Picks: Vanderbilt Commodores -5 (-210)
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