posted November 27, 2007 at 10:09 in Other Articles

On Saturday night at the Foxwoods Resort in Connecticut, we get the opportunity to see one of the better boxing fighters of the last five years continue to move his way back into prominence, as Vernon Forrest defends his WBC super welterweight championship against the challenge of Italy's Michele Piccirillo. The card, which is televised by Showtime in the U.S., also features an IBO light heavyweight title fight between Antonio Tarver and Danny Santiago, as well as an IBO-IBF flyweight title tilt between Nonita Donaire and Luis Maldonado.

BetUS boxing betting odds:

WBC Super Welterweight (154-lb.) title

December 1 -- Mashantucket, CT

VERNON FORREST -900

MICHELE PICCIRILLO +600

Over 11.5 Rounds -300

Under 11.5 Rounds +200

For betting purposes, let's size up the contestants:

FORREST (39-2, 28 KO's), the -900 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, has been a pro for 15 years and is the current WBC champion. He is a former welterweight champion as well, and has been involved in seven world title fights.

PICCIRILLO (40-3, 30 KO's), the +600 underdog, held the lightly-regarded World Boxing Union welterweight crown for a couple of years and was also once the IBF 147-lb. titleholder.

These two have met up before. Forrest was the 1991 U.S. amateur champion at 139 pounds. At the world championships that year he finished second, losing to Kostya Tszyu in the finals, but not before beating Piccirillo in the first round of competition. Forrest went on to beat Shane Mosley in the Olympic Trials and represented the U.S. team in Barcelona, losing his opening-round bout. Piccirillo actually went to that same Olympiad as Italy's rep, and got past one bout before losing.

Forrest beat Raul Frank in May 2001 to win the IBF welterweight title, but his two big pro wins came over Mosley in 2002, the first of which brought him the WBC welterweight title belt. In those fights his height and range just seemed to create a matchup problem for Mosley. But the matchup problem was his when he encountered the highly unorthodox Ricardo Mayorga, who stopped him in two round in January of 2003, then beat him on a decision six months later. After the second Mayorga defeat, Forrest sat out for a couple of years for a variety of reasons, then returned against a couple of lesser lights before scoring a tight decision over the fading Ike Quartey in August of 2006. Forrest last fought in July with a decision over Carlos Baldomir. It was a rather dominant performance, with Forrest winning by nine points on two of the judges' scorecards.

A clear beneficiary of artful political maneuvering, Piccirillo has been carefully steered to avoid difficult fights wherever possible throughout his pro career, although he is not completely without credentials. He beat hard-hitting Rafael Pineda in September 2001, earning a shot at the IBF welterweight title Forrest had vacated to fight Mosley. But his decision over Cory Spinks in April of 2002 was looked upon by most as a highway robbery. Spinks beat him rather easily in a rematch in March 2003, and since then he has truly stepped up to the plate only once, losing a lopsided decision to Mayorga for the WBC 154-lb. title in August of 2005 in a fight where Piccirillo hardly even showed up.

Possessing decent fundamentals but not a dangerous punch, there is very little ammunition Piccirillo can bring to the table here. The question doesn't really involve whether he can actually beat Forrest, who showed enough against Baldomir to garner a clear recommendation. But can the Italian go the distance?

We think so.

When you look past the collection of nobodies Forrest knocked out early in his career, you notice that for the most part his career has settled into a pattern where he has been involved with distance fights when stepping up in level of competition. It's not that he doesn't have any power; knockouts over the capable Santiago Samaniego and Steve Martinez indicate otherwise. But Forrest seems content on letting his boxing abilities, which are often superior to the competition, take over, especially if the opponent isn't taking a particularly aggressive posture. Indeed, since the Samaniego fight, which took place in 1999, every win he's had over a Top 20-level foe has gone the distance.

It would not be unfair to characterize Piccirillo as an opponent that is going to be thinking survival first and victory second. This much was demonstrated against Mayorga. Believe me, we have seen the best of what the 37 year-old has to offer. I would not expect Forrest to force the issue too much as long as he has someone in front of him who is doing just enough to lose. This is a payday for Piccirillo, and a stepping stone to something else for Forrest, and I would anticipate it will be treated as such. So we look for a distance bout and hope it doesn't degenerate into pure agony.

JAY'S PLAY: OVER 11.5 ROUNDS (-300) ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

Betting on boxing has never been so easy and you can get your bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook. Go to Other Sports: Boxing. Find tons of props on the fight and the fighters in the Future / props section as well!

(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a former manager, matchmaker and color commentator in professional boxing. He currently pulls no punches in the BetUS Locker Room)