Posted on 1/3/2008 12:10:52 PM

Boxing Betting – A Little “Magic” in Atlantic City?

By Charles Jay

Paul Malignaggi, the Brooklynite who calls himself the "Magic Man," makes the first defense of his International Boxing Federation (IBF) junior welterweight championship on Saturday night in Atlantic City when he takes on challenger Herman Ngoudjo of Canada in a fight that will be televised by Showtime in the United States.

BetUS boxing betting odds:

IBF Junior Welterweight (140-lb.) title

OVER 11.5 ROUNDS -600

For betting purposes, let's size up the contestants:

MALIGNAGGI (23-1, 5 KO's), the -800 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, won the IBF title in his last bout June 16 against South African Lovemore N'Dou, who had been hoping to get a big-money fight against Arturo Gatti. Turning pro in 2001, Malignaggi had a rather undistinguished roster of opponents until he stepped up to fight undefeated Miguel Angel Cotto for the WBO 140-lb. title in June of 2006. Cotto put Malignaggi down in the second round but couldn't put him out; the fight went the entire twelve rounds, with Cotto winning the decision by five points by two cards and three points on the other. Malignaggi was a quantity that was largely unknown until that fight, and he won a lot of admirers with his guts in hanging with the powerful Cotto for all twelve stanzas.

Following a lackluster decision win over Edner Cherry last February, I wrote a column on a popular boxing website in which I laced into HBO commentator Max Kellerman, who had the temerity to make comparisons between Malignaggi and former light heavyweight great Billy Conn - and my comments certainly met with considerable disfavor in the Malignaggi camp.

But in his title-winning effort against N'Dou, Malignaggi was dominant; he won the 12-round decision by 14 points on two judges' scorecards and ten points on the other. And against an experienced opponent, it was indeed a performance that demonstrated a certain degree of mastery. I happened to be watching the fight with the late, great boxing historian Hank Kaplan - a member of the Hall of Fame - and even Hank remarked that Malignaggi looked somewhat Willie Pep-like in that one. Malignaggi, who has usually emphasized flash in his fights, toned things down a bit and got more fundamental, not unlike Miami Heat guard Jason Williams, then and now (if you can relate to the NBA analogy). In this, his first defense, Malignaggi should have at least some support, as he has fought 21 of his 24 bouts in the Northeast.

NGOUDJO (16-1, 9 KO's), the +550 underdog at BetUS, is a native of Cameroon who now lives in Montreal. He won the silver medal at the 1998 Commonwealth Games, and represented Cameroon in the 2000 Olympics in Sydney, losing out in his first-round match. He showed power early in his pro career, stopping eight of his first nine opponents, but has ended only one of his last eight fights inside the distance. He has made his reputation chiefly on the basis of a credible effort in January of last year, when he fought to a split decision defeat at the hands of Jose Luis Castillo - a fight many thought he rightfully won. With much less pro experience than Castillo, he showed guts by hanging in there and battling tooth-and-nail with a former world champ, although it bears mentioning that Castillo, as we saw against Ricky Hatton, had become something of a shot fighter.

Ngoudjo is not nearly as stylish or polished as Malignaggi, though you can't call him a novice - not after going into the 12th round in his last seven fights. Ngoudjo won't be a fan favorite, as he has fought just twice outside his adopted homeland of Canada.

What I want to look at here is the total rounds prop. Together, these fighters have knocked out 14 of 39 foes, or about 36%, which includes the early rollover bouts they had. Malignaggi had a technical decision win a few years ago, but only six of his 24 fights have ended inside the distance. Ten of his last 11 fight shave gone the full route. And he's gone a full 12 rounds in two of his last three. Ngoudjo has gone the distance in seven of his last eight matches. And as we mentioned, he has been to the 12th round in each of his last seven fights. Neither of these guys are big punchers and they do condition themselves to go the distance. In fact, Malignaggi does not go after the KO - at a recent press conference, he was quoted as saying, "If I win by knockout, it will be in the later rounds." But he is not really one of those guys who thinks to himself, "I'll take the knockout if it comes," with any degree of seriousness. One of the reasons may be that he is constantly hurting his hands in fights. That's the only real concern for me here, but nonetheless, according to the BetUS professional boxing betting odds…

JAY'S PLAY: OVER 11.5 ROUNDS (-600) ***

Betting on boxing has never been so easy and you can get your bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook. Go to Other Sports: Boxing. Find tons of props on the fight and the fighters in the Future / props section as well!

(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a former manager, matchmaker and color commentator in professional boxing. He currently pulls no punches in the BetUS Locker Room)