Posted on 5/2/2008 6:24:02 PM

Bet On the Kentucky Derby – And the Winner Is

By Brian Mulligan

After thinking, sleeping, talking, writing and evaluating what may happen the first Saturday in May in Louisville, the time is now to narrow down the winner.

This is the type of online betting race where horse bettors will likely either love the likely favorite Big Brown, or try to get value in the 20-horse field.

The truth of the matter is that if Big Brown were not in the field, this would be looked upon as the most wide-open Derby in years.

Can Brown be beaten from post 20? Sure, they can all be beaten. Secretariat, arguably the greatest horse ever, was beaten 5 times in his career, and superstar Curlin came into the Derby last year also sporting a 3 for 3 record and boasting a 105 Beyer in the prior race to the Derby yet only mustered a well-beaten third.

Granted, Brown has been impressive and he was visually impressive in his last win but the fact of the matter is that he has not beaten anybody yet.

This will be his toughest test to date, the crowd will be delirious, and he has been on the lead in 2 of his 3 wins and may have to fight a lot harder to make the top in Louisville.

Brown can be beaten, he could win too if he truly is a freak, but there will be no value so let’s look at the other logical players.

The likely second choice is the Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John. The form on the West Coast has held up well but this will be John’s first run on the conventional surface and he will be a poster boy for ridicule if he coughs it up Saturday.

The colt is one-paced, which is not a bad thing, but he ran down a horse, Bob Black Jack, in the SA Derby that has some distance questions.

Six weeks ago, Pyro was looking like the one to beat, but his flop in the Blue Grass when 10th was disheartening to say the least. His best Beyer came on the sea of slop at Monmouth, he has not repeated his best figures this year and he’s bucking a long trend of consistency.

Only one horse in the last dozen years finished out of the money in his final prep and that runner, Giacomo, was 4th by only 2 lengths and paid 50-1 in the Derby.

The fourth choice in the field may be Gayego, off an Arkansas Derby score, or Monba, who beat his stablemate Cowbow Cal a neck in the Blue Grass.

After this 5-pack, good luck. If you think Big Brown is vulnerable, you can build a case for a ton of horses, so let’s go shopping and try to get paid.

Adriano is a contender off his Lanes End win but he’s a bit of a head case and could unravel in the paddock with thousands looking on.

One thing he has going for him is Edgar Prado, who took off Tale of Ekati and Monba to stay with him.

Tale of Ekati picked off juvenile champ War Pass in the Wood in impressive fashion but War Pass may have been hurting and is stamina challenged.

Cool Coal Man’s last race is a toss out as he didn’t handle the Polytrack.

Denis of Cork will be a huge number and he could make some serious noise.

Z Fortune almost overcame an outside slot at Oaklawn but could not quite run down Gayego.

And you can go on and on and after this Derby, all horse bettors will be able to look back and build a case with 20-20 hindsight.

The pick in the Derby from this corner is Court Vision. He’s never run a bad race, was 7 wide in the Fountain of Youth, and then quickened too late in the Wood.

One thing puts him in the driver’s seat and that’s his trainer Bill Mott, who is ultra patient, would not be in this position unless he thought he could win and he added a new piece of equipment to the puzzle in a Churchill drill on April 17.

Mott, who never works his horses fast, added the blinkers that day and Vision posted a best of 25 bullet work, which was the best by a full second.

Look for Garrett Gomez to settle Vision, save ground, make one big run and get there. Sprinkle in a few longshots in the gimmicks and try to take a shot at a life changer.

Good luck.

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby Odds at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting.