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posted April 22, 2008 at 17:26 in NBA Free Picks

The Phoenix Suns, (55-28 SU, 40-40-3 ATS, 46-37 O/U) said they went out and acquired aging center Shaquille O’Neal to give the team more of a low post presence in the postseason, particularly when they face the defending champion San Antonio Spurs, (57-26 SU, 37-44-2 ATS, 36-47 O/U) and surefire Hall of Famer, Tim Duncan. This gave the online basketball betting community more reason to wager on the rising suns.

Maybe someone should have told them that O’Neal couldn’t beat my grandma in a foot race.

Duncan abused O’Neal and the Suns for 40 points and 15 rebounds, not to mention the biggest play of the game.

After a pick-and-roll involving Manu Ginobili and Duncan, with just seconds remaining in the first overtime, the immobile O’Neal, left Duncan alone out at the three-point line to guard a driving Ginobili just as time expired. The decision proved to be fatal as Ginobili passed to Duncan and he promptly drained his first three-pointer of the season to force a second overtime that the Spurs would eventually go on to win 117-115.

"I don't believe there's going to be a whole lot of three-point shooting," Duncan said. "I'm not going to change my game a whole lot. I'm happy that that one went down but I'm not going to rest anything on that."

The Suns come into Game 2 knowing they were close to winning Game 1 before game-tying three-pointer by Duncan and Michael Finley eventually sealed their fate and feel unfazed about their series-opening loss.

"We feel like we're going to be very difficult to beat," Suns point guard Steve Nash said.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my analysis and NBA Wagering Free Picks:

The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.

The Suns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.

The Spurs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.

The Spurs are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 playoff games as a favorite.

The Over is 4-0 in Suns last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.

The Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.

The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

The Suns are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio.

The Suns are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Analysis: I’d be lying if I said this game was a total ‘lock’. However, I will emphatically go on record to say that the trade for O’Neal will come back to haunt the Suns big time at some point. Adding him to their free-flowing offensive system was like trying to shove a square peg into a round hole. Take the Suns to win another close one, this time covering the spread.

NBA Free Picks: San Antonio -2 Points/Under 192 Total Points

09:30 PM EST NBA Odds

Phoenix Suns +2 -110

San Antonio Spurs -2 -110

Over 192 -110

Under 192 -110

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