posted June 30, 2008 at 15:15 in Other Articles

BetUS Sportsbook bettors interested in the entertainment industry know they can bet on a virtual plethora of activity in Hollywood. These days, much of the talk is centering around a possible strike from the Screen Actor's Guild. And as usual, BetUS has some numbers on it:

BetUS Entertainment Proposition Odds

Odds that the SAG goes on Strike: 2/1

Odds on a lockout: 10/11

Over/Under on amount of days a strike would last: 21

Odds on the actor most likely to cross the picket line:

Colin Farrell: 1/1

Tom Hanks: 10/1

Tom Cruise: 14/1

Jack Nicholson: 25/1

Odds on actress most likely to cross the picket line:

Britney Murphy: 1/1

Sandra Oh: 10/1

Julia Roberts: 14/1

Diane Keaton: 25/1

Usually I come up with a personal story surrounding some of this stuff. This is no exception. Whether you consider it a tall tale or not is up to you. Back in 1984, I was working on a little TV show you may have heard of - "Miami Vice." I was one of a group of background extras who served on a regular basis as "squad room detectives." I even had a name, "Det. Morris," and a badge, for whatever reason. In the middle of one 18-hour day, during which I was thought I was going to die, I got summoned to the office of Ivan Tors Studio in North Miami for a phone call. It was the local casting director of the show, who wanted to know whether I was interested in auditioning for a speaking role. It was all of three words - "Special Delivery, Sonny." I was bringing divorce papers to the Don Johnson character.

She told me that the role would pay $329, but that I had to join the Screen Actors Guild because she couldn't get me "Taft-Hartley'd" for the role. The SAG card was $675. Plus, I couldn't work anymore as an extra if I took the role. Well, I was just out of college, and had no money, so I couldn't handle actually LOSING money to become a "principal" on this NBC prime-time show. So I turned it down, went back out to the studio, and slept on the floor until the next scene.

Olivia Brown, a series regular, wound up doing the scene instead.

Why did I tell you this story? I don't know. But if had made another decision that day, I may have been threatening to go "on strike" as we speak. Not against BetUS, mind you, but against the motion picture industry. The Screen Actors Guild has some overlapping membership with AFTRA - the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (in fact, about 44,000 members' worth). AFTRA has come to its own agreement with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, which essentially is comprised of the major studios, for things like online content, and they actually made their deal separately, the first time since 1981 that this was done. Needless to say, the SAG leadership now hates the AFTRA leadership.

That AFTRA agreement, however, requires ratification, and so everyone in the business is watching to see how overwhelming the vote is on that, or if that contract is, in fact, shot down. If its is not ratified, that would give SAG more leverage with the studios. If it is approved, it would take some steam out of the SAG effort. So SAG in engaged in a very aggressive lobbying effort in which it is urging the overlapping members to vote against the contract.

Tom Hanks has lined up on one side, as he is in support of the AFTRA agreement. So is Alec Baldwin, Susan Sarandon' Kevin Spacey and former SAG president Richard Masur, among many others. Meanwhile, Jack Nicholson is leading the SAG side, which also includes Oscar nominees like Ed Harris and Viggo Mortensen. Meanwhile, George Clooney is being the nice guy, urging everyone to keep the peace, and not engage in something which "pits artists against artist."

This issue is too complicated to cover in its entirety here, but it is safe to say that "There Will Be Blood."

While the SAG contract expires at midnight on Monday, there will not be any negotiations, in all probability until at least July 8, when the results of the AFTRA vote are announced. So as we enter July, there will likely be a work stoppage (which apparently is the 2/1 proposition in the BetUS odds). SAG seems inclined to strike. But remember that the agreement can be extended day-by-day, week-by-week, or however length of time the two sides might tentatively agree to. A lockout is possible (it's listed at 10/11 at BetUS), but in such a volatile atmosphere, I would tend to think would rather sit back and see what happens in the divided acting ranks, rather than to risk exacerbating things with a move that might galvanized actors against them. Nor do I think anyone is going to crossing picket lines just yet.

However, if a strike happens, I would be inclined to believe that once voted on and passed, it wouldn't last the 21 days as it is posted in the BetUS entertainment odds. I say that because there is so much ambivalence about it within the acting community. Sooner or later, an agreement will come to pass. I'm thinking sooner, rather than later. Cooler heads will eventually prevail.

(Charles Jay of http://www.ebookies.com is always willing to entertain you as a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)