Posted on 11/6/2007 2:10:05 PM

Boxing Betting: Is Sugar Shane Still Sweet Enough to Bet On?

By Charles Jay

In Madison Square Garden, it's going to be a fight that is somewhat reminiscent of the old days. Two of the best welterweights in the world get together in what is a terrific clash of styles, and the WBA championship is on the line as Miguel Angel Cotto, who wants to be the most prominent part of the future of boxing, tackles Sugar Shane Mosley, one of the most storied figures of boxing's recent past, who vows he isn't quite done yet.

BetUS boxing betting odds:

WBA Welterweight (147-lb.) Title

November 10, New York

MIGUEL ANGEL COTTO -150

SHANE MOSLEY +120

Over 9.5 rounds -300

Under 9.5 rounds +200

For boxing betting purposes, let's size up the contestants:

You will occasionally hear from the HBO boxing commentators that Miguel Angel Cotto may be the heir apparent to Arturo Gatti as the most exciting fighter in boxing.

That is not necessarily a good thing.

Gatti is the blood-and-guts warrior who is synonymous with taking as much, if not more, punishment than he gives. Cotto possesses some of those same characteristics, which are great for the viewing audience but won't always serve him well against genuine world-class opposition.

COTTO is still undefeated as a professional (30-0, 25 KO's), but there are most certainly some chinks in the armor, the kind of things that are uncovered over time, and sometimes accidentally, when one has been carefully steered on a career course.

As early as Cotto's pro debut it was evident to boxing betting fans that the Puerto Rican Olympian had ability. Right off the bat he was able to devastate opponents with a strong left hook combination - one that is thrown to the body, then to the head. It was much more advanced than you would expect out of a young fighter, and remains his bread-and-butter. Of course, that kind of maneuver is easier when the other guy is standing right in front of you; the flip side is that Cotto has had trouble when the opponent can move laterally. He is more or less a straight-line fighter and can be very mechanical at times.

The biggest problem with Cotto (-150), however, is that he does not have a sturdy chin. Due of the deft matchmaking of Top Rank's Bruce Trampler, his whiskers never really had to be tested until he had already won a championship, because in this day and age titles are so cheap and easy to capture. In February of 2005, however, he was hurt badly by the light-hitting DeMarcus Corley, who had him staggered and flopping all over the place. A sharper puncher would almost certainly have knocked Cotto out, but Corley just didn't have enough to follow up. Cotto eventually caught up to him and stopped him in the fifth round. Against Ricardo Torres, Cotto was once again in dire straits before summoning his power to stop the opponent.

Cotto has been able to overcome his weak chin with pure punching power. And he has it in spades. But will that, in and of itself, work against Shane Mosley, arguably the most formidable, experienced foe he's faced thus far?

The exploits of MOSLEY (44-4, 37 KO's) are widely known, particularly his pair of wins over Oscar De La Hoya. Mosley has had his ups and downs; his two losses to Vernon Forrest were partially a matter of style, since Forrest's ranginess presented great difficulty. And Winky Wright, who also beat him twice, presents a problem for just about everyone. Cotto is much more compact and from the physical standpoint will be more to Mosley's liking than either De La Hoya or Forrest. And he's not a defensive master like Wright. In fact, far from it.

Mosley (+120) has obviously aged (now 36), so he is not going to be as lightning-fast as he once was. But it's not as if it's a matter of him having to turn back the clock. He still possesses plenty of hand speed, as he demonstrated in the two wins he posted against Fernando Vargas. That hand speed will generate power, so you can count on him nailing Cotto cleanly on occasion. As we have already expressed, once you hit Cotto on the button, the rest is a big adventure.

I have never been a huge fan of Cotto. That doesn't mean I don't think he can fight; it means I don't think he matches the hype, which had billed him as the next Oscar De La Hoya, something Bob Arum and Top Rank needed since they had lost the services of De La Hoya himself some time ago. I have always thought Cotto could and would falter when someone came along who could show him some movement and could send crisp punches his way when he left himself open. I couldn't possibly back down now. Mosley will move on him, not in bicycle-like fashion, but enough to present different angles. He has enough savvy, enough hand speed, and enough experience on the big stage to make him a very live underdog, at +120 in the BetUSboxing betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: MOSLEY (+120) **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

Betting on boxing has never been so easy and you can get your bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook. Go to Other Sports: Boxing. Find tons of props on the fight and the fighters in the Future / props section as well!

(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a former manager, matchmaker and color commentator in professional boxing. He currently pulls no punches in the BetUS Locker Room)