posted September 28, 2007 at 16:29 in MLB Betting Trends
Bet On Baseball - Florida Marlins (69-90) vs. New York Mets (87-72)
With just 17 games remaining in the 2007 regular season, the Mets owned a commanding seven-game lead in the division and have buried the MLB betting group supporting them. But history is on New York's side, because no team in major league history has failed to win a division title when holding a seven-game lead with 17 to play.
The New York Mets (-220) have lost seven straight games at Shea and 10-of-14 overall while allowing the Philadelphia Phillies, who have won 8-of-11, to tie them for NL East supremacy.
The Mets desperately need wins as they wrap up the season this evening by hosting the Florida Marlins (+190) in a three-game series.
- Mets are 0-5 in their last 5 during Game 1 of a series.
- Mets are 4-9 in their last 13 vs. National League East.
- Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 Friday games.
Left-hander Oliver Perez (15-9, 3.32 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets, who is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in three starts versus the Marlins this season.
In his last outing, Perez gave up just two runs in eight innings, striking out eight and not walking a batter in New York's 7-2 victory over Florida on Saturday. He is now 3-0 in his last four starts despite allowing 14 runs in 24 2-3 innings.
- Mets are 5-1 in Perez's last 6 starts during Game 1 of a series.
- Mets are 4-0 in Perez's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mets are 6-2 in Perez's last 8 starts on Grass.
- Mets are 4-0 in Perez's last 4 Friday starts.
The Marlins will counter with right-hander Byung-Hyun Kim (9-8, 6.11), who is 0-4 with a 9.15 ERA in four lifetime starts versus New York. Including relief appearances, Kim is 1-5 against the Mets.
Kim has lost his last two starts, getting touched for 13 runs over nine innings in those games.
In his last outing, Kim gave up five runs in five innings in a 7-2 loss to the Mets on Saturday.
- Marlins are 5-2 in Kim's last 7 road starts.
MLB odds display New York (-220) the favorites to win Game 1 with a total of 9½ over -115. The Mets are also favored to take the series at -300.
- Mets are 1-9 in their last 10 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.
- Mets are 4-9 in their last 13 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
- Mets are 0-7 in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
Analysis: The Marlins are 1-4 in the last five meetings and the Mets are 4-1 in Perez's last five starts versus Florida. This rematch of Saturday's contest between Perez and Kim will yield the same kind of results with a New York victory in a must win game.
MLB Free Picks: Mets 6 Marlins 4
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