posted November 29, 2007 at 16:41 in NBA Free Picks

The Nuggets have come back to earth a bit after that torrid start, same thing with the Lakers. Both teams rely on two of the best players in the game, Carmelo Anthony for the Nuggets and Kobe Bryant for the Lakers.

If an opposing defense can shut-down either one of those guys, then neither the Nuggets nor Lakers are likely to win the game. That makes the presence of the guards very, very important in this one.

Where has Allen Iverson gone for the Nuggets? The Answer is averaging 7.3 assists and 2.53 steals a game. He’s turned into one of the more reliable point-guards in the league, but to be honest, I think the Nuggets need him to start taking the ball to the hole even more this year. I might be the only NBA bettor in the world who believes this, but Iverson’s per game average should be hovering around 27 points and not the 23 that he’s currently putting up.

Don’t worry, A.I., Carmelo will get his. You need to step up and bring the Nuggets more wins. That’s your job.

The basketball betting trends point to both teams losing in this game:

The Denver Nuggets are 2 and 7 against the spread in their last 9 road games.

The Los Angeles Lakers are 9-21-1 against the spread in their last 31 home games.

This doesn’t help us very much. One team can’t play on the road. The other team doesn’t have a home-court advantage.

To me, this comes down to a basic understanding of how analyze point-spreads. I see anything above 4 points for a team like the Lakers and I have to wince. I just don’t believe that they are 5 points better than the Nuggets.

The Nuggets force, on average, 13 turnovers per game. With the Lakers point-guard situation the way it is, I expect the Nuggets to get close to that. Iverson needs to run the break effectively in order for the Nuggets to get a lead on the Lakers, but I believe that he will in this game.

The BetUS NBA wagering line is Denver Nuggets + 5.5 against the spread on the road versus the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Nuggets bring enough fire-power into this game to win it outright.

I like the Nuggets to pull an upset.

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