Posted on
1/11/2008 3:04:24 PM
NBA Basketball Betting – Miami at New Orleans
By Charles Jay
WHO: Miami Heat (8-28 SU, 14-22 ATS) at New Orleans Hornets (23-12 SU, 20-14-1 ATS)
WHERE: New Orleans Arena
WHEN: Friday, January 11, 8 PM ET
BetUS NBA basketball betting odds: NEW ORLEANS -11.5, Total: 189.5
In the HEAD-to-HEAD NBA betting trends:
* NO has covered four of the last five meetings
* MIA has won five of the last seven meetings SU
* The last five meetings have gone OVER the total
* NO has covered six of the last seven meetings as the home team
* NO has won 13 of the last 15 meetings SU as the home team
* The last five meetings at New Orleans have gone OVER the total
* NO has had the shooting edge in each of the last four meetings
* MIA has had the rebounding edge in seven of the last eight meetings
Miami has averaged fewer rebounds than any team in the NBA (38.9 per game). The Heat is also 29th in the NBA in free throw percentage, shooting just 69.9% from the line. Pat Riley's team hits just 4.6 three-point shots per contest. Also:
* MIA has lost its last nine games SU
* MIA has covered one of its last nine games
* MIA has covered one of its last eight road games
* MIA has played five of its last seven road games UNDER the total
New Orleans has yielded just 93.9 points a game, which places them fifth in the NBA in that department. The Hornets register 7.8 steals per game and shoot 44.5% from the field. Also:
* NO has won and covered eight of its last ten games
* NO has played 10 of its last 15 games UNDER the total
* NO has covered four of its last 12 home games
* NO has won five of its last seven home games SU
* NO has played five of its last six home games UNDER the total
Things are obviously going badly for the Heat; so badly that people hardly remember that this team won the NBA title just two seasons ago. So badly that Pat Riley, the legendary front-runner, is now making subtle hints about stepping down as coach, which would make sense since Shaquille O'Neal and Alonzo Mourning are out and probably won't be around next year.
Dwyane Wade is being worked to death, but when you're joined by the likes of Mark Blount and Ricky Davis in the starting lineup, you aren't going anywhere. Conversely, we like the way New Orleans' team is put together, with the strength and toughness up front (Tyson Chandler, David West), the shooting from the wing (Peja Stojakovic) and the virtuoso running the floor (Chris Paul). Of course, we're not altogether happy with the Hornets' last performance, where they shot just 37% against the Lakers, so we're looking for an angry team to come out on Friday. The problem is, they've only covered four of their last 12 home games. And in their last 12 losses, the Heat has lost by more than this number only twice.
We're going to look in the direction of the total here. Does that mean a much improved shooting and scoring performance on the part of the Hornets? Well, perhaps. We realize the last the last five meetings between these teams has gone over the total, but both of these clubs have been skewing "under," and considering Miami is 25th in the league in scoring on the road, we're going to lean under the 189.5 points, as is listed in the BetUS NBA basketball betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 189.5
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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com is a freelance writer and handicapper who not only can make his shots from the top of the key, but also contributes with gusto to the BetUS Locker Room)