Posted on
12/5/2007 3:15:56 PM
Bet on NBA - Dallas Mavericks (-3) vs. San Antonio Spurs (+3)
By D.S. Williamson
The sigh of relief rang up through the rafters in every church in San Antonio yesterday had to with Spurs center Tim Duncan. It turns out that Duncan will not need year ending knew surgery. Instead, Big Tim will just need some rest.
That’s good news for Spurs’ fans, bad news for the rest of the NBA, but good news for Dallas tonight. The Mavs, who are currently 3 games behind San Antonio in the standings, get to pick-up a game against their arch-rivals tonight. Without Duncan, the Spurs chances of pulling out a win, much less beating the point-spread isn’t very good.
Right? Well, sort of. Actually, the trends below can be deceiving unless you really look into them:
The Dallas Mavericks are 3 and 9 against the spread in their last 12 road games.
The San Antonio Spurs are 1-7-1 against the spread in their last 9 versus a team from the NBA Southwest.
The UNDERDOG is 13 and 3 against the spread in the last 16 meetings between these two teams.
The ROAD team is 10 and 3 against the spread in the last 13 meetings between these two teams.
The trends are deceiving because they are all over the board. That makes this game come down to what, in so many cases, it always comes down to when you are thinking of betting against or for the San Antonio Spurs. How will the lack of Tim Duncan’s production effect this Spurs team and will the Mavs be able to capitalize on it?
Duncan leads the Spurs in rebounds, blocks, and field goal percentage. The rebounds will be the issue. Even though the Spurs have enough guns to make-up the 17.6 points that Duncan provides each game, 8.9 rebounds is going to be tough.
Outside of Duncan the Spurs are pretty much a finesse team. Their forwards like to crowd the 3-point line and make space for 15 foot jump-shots. They do not have the type of banger that can go after a guy like DeSagana Diop.
Yep. I’m actually calling out Diop in this game. Why? Because the Mav’s center averages over 7 rebounds a game while playing only 24 minutes. The other Mavs center, when Nowitzki isn’t playing - - Erik Dampier - - averages over 6 rebounds a game in only 16 minutes.
That production is going to be hard for the Spurs to match in this game. Because of that, I have to go with the Mavs to cover this spread.
The BetUS betting line is Dallas Mavericks – 3 against the spread on the road versus the San Antonio Spurs.
Offensively, the Spurs will be fine, but without the defensive presence of Tim Duncan, expect the Mavericks to exploit the lane all night. Terry and Harris, the two Mavs’ guards, will find Dallas’s big-men and take it to the hole without hesitation.
I like the Mavs to cover that spread.
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