Posted on
10/31/2007 6:00:05 PM
Bet On The NBA - Dallas Mavericks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
By Robby Maddux
The NBA regular-season is underway and now's the time to take advantage of soft NBA lines before oddsmakers zero in on sharp numbers, beginning tonight when Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks (-4) take on LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) at Quicken Loans Arena.
The Mavericks ended last year on a sour note by getting upset in the first-round of the playoffs by Golden State. Dallas lasted six games in the series and dropped the cash in five of the six.
During the regular-season, the Mavericks were 67-15 SU (straight up) and 41-37-4 ATS (against the spread). On the road, they were 31-10 SU and 22-17-2 ATS.
Nowitzki's average dipped to 24.6 in 2006 but his assists and shooting percentages were career highs.
The reigning MVP has faced the Cavs 16 times during his career and has posted solid numbers against them. Nowitzki is averaging 21.6 points per game versus Cleveland while shooting 44 percent from the floor.
Dallas has other strong scorers with Jerry Stackhouse and Jason Terry, and the roster hasn't changed much besides the additions of veteran Eddie Jones and second-round pick Nick Fazekas.
The NBA betting public saw Dallas score 100 points per game last season while holding opponents to 92.8.
- Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.
- Mavericks are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Central.
- Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Cleveland made no major acquisitions after being overmatched by San Antonio in a finals sweep, as they failed to cover the number in three of the four, and two key members from that Eastern Conference title team - Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic - are still missing. Both are holding out for better contracts.
Led by James, the Cavs were 50-32 SU and 43-37-2 ATS in 2006. At home, they were 30-11 SU and covered the spread in four of their last five.
James joined Oscar Robertson last season as the only players to average at least 27.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists in three straight years. James was fourth in the league with 27.3 points per game.
The mega-star has faced Dallas eight times in his career, scoring 31.5 points per game and is shooting 53.1 percent from the floor.
As a team, the Cavs scored 96.8 points per game and held their opponents to 92.9 points last season.
- Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.
- Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southwest.
- Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Cavaliers are 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 games overall.
NBA odds list Dallas the 4-point road favorites with a game total of 186½.
- Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
- Cavaliers are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog.
- Cavaliers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog.
- Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
- Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Analysis: Dallas swept the two-game series SU with Cleveland last season despite James averaging 35 points, and has lost only two of the last 13 meetings. The absence of Varejao and Pavlovic will hurt the Cavs, so get down on the Mavs and enjoy your trip to the bank.
NBA Free Picks: Dallas 99 Cleveland 89
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