Posted on 10/16/2007 6:22:29 PM

MLB Betting Odds – ALCS Game 4 - Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians

By Eric Williams

The Cleveland Indians come into this Game 4 matchup with a 2-1 series lead over the Boston Red Sox, thanks to Monday night’s solid effort by starting pitcher Jake Westbrook in the Indians’ 4-2 win over Boston.

Tonight’s matchup between these two almost evenly matched teams, features two aging veteran starters that still know how to get the job done in Boston’s Tim Wakefield and Cleveland’s Paul Byrd.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my Free Baseball Betting Pick:

Key Red Sox Trends

The Red Sox are 5-0 in Wakefield's last 5 starts on grass.

The Red Sox are 7-1 in Wakefield's last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

The Red Sox are 10-3 in Wakefield's last 13 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Key Indians Trends

The Indians are 5-0 in Byrd's last 5 Tuesday starts.

The Indians are 5-1 in Byrd's last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

The Indians are 5-1 in Byrd's last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Key Totals Trends

The Over is 4-0 in Wakefield's last 4 starts vs. American League Central.

The Over is 10-1 in Wakefield's last 11 starts on grass.

The Over is 4-0 in Byrd's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

The Over is 7-1 in Byrd's last 8 home starts.

Key Head-to-Head Trends

The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.

The Under is 4-1 in Wakefield's last 5 starts vs. Indians.

The Red Sox are 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Cleveland.

For a more in-depth report on this game click Baseball Trends.

The Pitchers: Red Sox starting pitcher Tim Wakefield is 17-12 in 31 starts covering 189.0 innings. Wakefield has 110 strikeouts, 64 walks and an ERA of 4.76.

Indians starting pitcher Paul Byrd is 15-8 in 31 starts covering 192.1 innings. Byrd has 88 strikeouts, 28 walks and a 4.59 ERA.

Analysis: Maybe it’s me, but the Cleveland Indians all of a sudden look like the team with the more confidence – and more importantly – the stronger pitching staff.

With Wakefield and Byrd likely canceling each other out with respectable performances, this game could hinge on the performance of each team’s bullpen – and the timely hitting that has helped Cleveland to their one-game lead. While I think it is still a very real possibility that the Boston Red Sox will win this series, I have to go with the Cleveland Indians to win tonight’s contest and take a 3-1 lead back to Boston with the possibility of closing out the series in Game 5.

MLB Free Picks: Indians 6 Red Sox 5

08:20 PM EST MLB Odds

Boston Red Sox Tim Wakefield - R -113

Cleveland Indians Paul Byrd - R +103

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