Posted on 1/22/2008 5:28:09 PM

Australian Open Quarterfinal Tennis Pick: Djokovic vs. Ferrer

By Nila Amerova

Melbourne, Australian – World No.3 Novak Djokovic, the bookies second short odds favourite at +550 to win the Australian Open title, continued his comfortable march through the Australian Open over the weekend, ending Lleyton Hewitt’s run, Australia’s only title hope on the men’s side, in straight sets 7-5, 6-3, 6-3. Serbian sensation joins Rafael Nadal as the only two players in the tournament yet to drop a set. Next up for Djokovic, who at 20 years and eight months is the youngest player alive in the tournament, is No.5 David Ferrer. Bet on the Australian Open Quarterfinals at BetUS Sportsbook. Check out the live tennis odds that are available for currently running.

Tennis Betting Line:

To win Outright:

David Ferrer +4½ -130 +200 Over 39 -130

Novak Djokovic -4½ -110 -300 Under 39 -110

To win first set

David Ferrer (1st Set) +150 Over 10 -140

Novak Djokovic (1st Set) -200 Under 10 EV

Match Time: 10pm Eastern Time, Tuesday, 22 January 2008

Tennis Prediction: Novak Djokovic has looked comfortable in his advance for the most part, having not dropped a set throughout the tournament thus far, he is the smart bet for a berth in the semifinal. However, the bookmakers’ second short odds favourite to win the Australian Open, (after Federer at -200 and before Nadal at +650) has not been tested, enjoying a relatively straight forward run up to this point. Ferrer will be his first challenge and after his flat performance against Ferrer at the Tennis Masters Cup Championships, Djokovic will be anxious to avenge the loss. Betting on Djokovic at -300 is a sound play.

Nevertheless, betting on No.5 David Ferrer, tipped at +200 underdog odds, holds a lot of value. Maybe even more than betting on the favourite. The dogged and determined Spaniard, enjoyed a breakthrough season last year, winning three ATP titles and reaching the final eight at Roland Garros (l. to Nadal) and the final four at the US Open (l. to Djokovic).

The 25-year-old Ferrer owns a career 3-2 head-to-head record over Djokovic; and in 2007, they are tied at 2-2 record, of which the most recent meeting between the pair was at the ATP year-end showdown—the Tennis Masters Cup. In a spectacular showing at the Tennis Masters Cup, Ferrer crushed Djokovic 6-4, 6-4 in the Round Robin stage, en route to becoming the surprise finalist (l. to Federer).

Ferrer and Djokovic have a tight record, not only in terms of match wins, but also in terms of the matches themselves, which were close contests that could have ended either way. Their matchup in the quarterfinal of the Australian Open as such would appear to be a lot closer than the money line would suggest.

A wave of upsets at the Australian Open: Jo-Wilfred Tsonga’s magical run, which saw him eliminate three seeded players in Andy Murray, Richard Gasquet and Mikhail Youzhny; and Maria Sharapova’s determined advance, which saw her topple former World No.1 Lindsay Davenport and reigning World No.1 Justine Henin, en route to the semifinal—amongst several others combined could inspire Ferrer to follow in their footsteps. Indeed, betting on Ferrer is not a long shot bet. Perhaps it will be the winning bet.

For those tennis bettors, who like to play it safe, take Djokovic, for he is the player with the better shot at advancing. However, many a pundit, while recognizing the talent of Tsonga, balked at wagering on his underdog odds, only to realize that the balance of power in tennis can shift at any given moment, making anything possible. I picked Tsonga to beat Youzhny and once again,

I will take a chance on the underdog and pick Ferrer.

Tennis Free Picks: Ferrer in four sets

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.