Posted on 3/19/2008 12:57:21 PM

ATP Pacific Life Open – Fourth Round Tennis Betting Picks

By Nila Amerova

Indian Wells, CA – The bottom half of the draw, which includes 2007AMS Indian Wells champion No.2 Rafael Nadal and runner-up No.3 Novak Djokovic, enters the fourth round on Wednesday March 19, 2008 and as both aforementioned tennis stars won their third round contests they have set up some blockbuster matchups for tennis bettors to bet on. Nadal is set to meet Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – the player who ousted the World No.2 in the Australian Open semifinals and Djokovic will face Guillermo Canas – the player he defeated en route to his maiden AMS shield in Miami last year. So while the tournament prepares to receive these scintillating matchups tomorrow, in the meantime, here is a look at the tennis odds that are currently available at BetUS and my take on who will advance into the quarterfinals in Indian Wells.

Tennis Betting Line: Novak Djokovic -500 Guillermo Canas +300

Match Time: 02:00 PM Eastern Time, Wednesday March 19, 2008

Tennis Prediction: The only time Serb Novak Djokovic and Argentine Guillermo Canas met was last year at the AMS in Miami. They met in the Miami final – contested in the best-of-three sets – and Djokovic took the match 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 to win his maiden AMS shield and second title of the year. In fact, his victory over Guillermo Canas was seen as the turning point of his career – it was the first time Djokovic won a major title outside of a Grand Slam title – and earned him the distinction of being held as a possible future Grand Slam titlist. That year Djokovic went on to win a second AMS shield in Canada (d. Roger Federer) and picked up two more titles in Estoril and Vienna as well as finishing runner-up at the US Open.

In 2008, Djokovic began his season by delivering on the Grand Slam expectations that surrounded him following his breakthrough 2007 season, capturing the Australian Open crown. He arrives into the fourth round with a 13-3 record for the season, which includes his run in Melbourne and a semifinal appearance in Dubai (l. to Andy Roddick). His worst performance this season came in Marseille– a surprise loss to Gilles Simon in the second round. The poor showing aside, Djokovic has had a remarkable year thus far. As the World No.3 and possibly the best hard courter on the ATP Tour, Canas will be a long shot bet to orchestrate the upset over Djokovic.

Tennis Free Pick: Djokovic in straight sets

Tennis Betting Line: Richard Gasquet -150 James Blake +110

Match Time: 01:00 PM Eastern Time, Friday March 14, 2008

Tennis Prediction: Richard Gasquet of France holds a 2-0 lead over American James Blake. The World No.8 Frenchman earned both victories over No.9 Blake at AMS events – in Canada (2006) and Paris (2007). Back-to-back in the ATP rankings, both players have much to recommend them on the money line. Neither player holds an AMS shield, but both have come close with runner-up finishes. Blake holds home court edge, which makes him the crowd favorite to edge past Gasquet who in turn, is the bookies favorite. The characteristic both players have in common – an interesting quality for a Top 10 player and perhaps the reason why neither has achieved true greatness – is the fact that both lack the ability to produce consistent high-level performances. They will win a match sensationally one day, but follow-up with a sub-par performance – by their standards – on the next day. At major tournaments, such an inconsistency at best will take a player on a deep run, but does not facilitate a title victory particularly when faced with players the likes of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

In short, they are well matched and the winner will be the player who starts the match with the necessary intensity to win. This could be either player on any given day. So which one will it be tomorrow? Taking the odds makers bait and picking Blake would be a good play, especially as he has the edge on American soil; but in spite of crowd support for Blake, I think Gasquet is the better play to edge past Blake into the final eight.

Tennis Free Pick: Gasquet in three sets

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room