Posted on
4/23/2008 6:23:11 PM
ATP Online Tennis Betting - Free Picks - Djokovic vs. Murray
By Nila Amerova
Monte Carlo, Monaco – The R16 matchup between Novak Djokovic vs. Andy Murray at the ATP Masters Series Monte Carlo is such a stellar billing that it deserves sole attention in this tennis free picks article. Even the odds makers at BetUS Sportsbook give this matchup extra attention, offering the online sports betting community not only the option of betting on the typical matchup line, but games betting, with the points spread and total points, as well. So, while a little extra effort is required to handicap this match, the potential of profit increases with the added betting options. Here is a breakdown of how I expect this matchup to play out.
Tennis Betting Line:
Novak Djokovic -4 -120 -300 Over 22 -115
Andrew Murray +4 -120 +200 Under 22 -125
Match Time: 04:00 AM Eastern Time, Thursday April 23, 2008
Analysis: World No.3 Novak Djokovic holds a perfect record over No.20 Andy Murray, beating him twice last year and once in 2007. With a comfortable 3-0 edge, Djokovic at -300 favorite odds on the money line would appear to be a good play for bettors betting on Djokovic to win the match. Further recommending Djokovic is an 18-4 mark for the season with two ATP titles – 2008 Australian Open and Pacific Life Open.
Djokovic enters the third round, after contesting his opening match in the second round (as the third seed Djokovic received a bye) over Ivan Ljubicic. Djokovic won the match comfortably 6-3, 6-3.
In 2007, Murray suffered a wrist injury that saw him struggle in matches and tournament play. Djokovic’s easy victories over Murray last year at the ATP Masters Series in Indian Wells and in Miami (6-2, 6-3 and 6-1, 6-0 respectively) belie Murray’s true potential. Not to take away from Djokovic’s victories, but an in-form Murray would have challenged Djokovic better.
Andy Murray who slipped in ranking this season did not receive a bye into the second round. He arrived in Monte Carlo with a 14-5 mark for the year with two ATP titles – Doha and Marseille. Murray reaches the second round in Monte Carlo with victories over Feliciano Lopez 7-6(5), 6-4 and Filippol Volandri 6-2, 6-3.
So in terms of handicapping this match, few bettors would bet against the favorite Djokovic. At -300 favorite odds, he would appear to be the better play. His hard court season was outstanding and experts predict his clay court season will follow suit. On the other hand, Murray enjoyed a great start to his year and at +200 underdog odds, the Scot holds value for the win as well. For long shot pushers, this underdog can deliver. After all, when playing a tennis star like Djokovic, players tend to raise the level of their game. Murray’s victory over Roger Federer in Dubai earlier this year is case-and-point of Murray raising his game to the World No.1’s lofty standards. Murray is too good a player to hold a losing record over Djokovic. So for my money line pick in this match up, I would take the underdog Murray.
Money Line Tennis Free Picks: Murray +200
For bettors wary of risking their money on Murray, preferring to take the safe choice in Djokovic for the win, then there is always the points spread and total games to bet on. At +4 -120, Murray needs to win or lose the match by less than four games. Against Federer in Dubai, Murray topped the Swiss with a close score 6-7(6) 6-3 6-4. While with this particular points spread (+4), the score in the aforementioned example ((Murray 6+6+6=18) –( Federer 7+3+4=14)=4)would result in a push, I expect the same level of game from the Scot against Djokovic. Therefore, with a tight match, whether Murray wins or loses the match, I expect he will do so to cover the spread. Taking Murray to cover the spread would be a good play.
Spread Tennis Free Picks: Andrew Murray +4 -120
Finally, on betting on the total points, I like the Over 22. Considering Murray is in the best form of his career, I expect him to stretch Djokovic to three sets. Therefore, with a tight and close match, I like the combined number of games to exceed 22.
Total Points Tennis Free Picks: Over 22 -115
So there you have it, my tennis free picks for this exceptional match up. Whether you agree or disagree, bet on the marquee matchup at the ATP Masters Series Monte Carlo with BetUS Sportsbook.
So there you have it, a nice short break down for you of some of the exciting tennis betting options available at BetUS Sportsbook. Now that you are all read up, you are ready to start betting on tennis!
Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.