Posted on 10/17/2007 9:58:56 PM

ATP Masters Series In Madrid: Third Round Pick Nadal vs. Murray

By Nila Amerova

ATP Masters Series Odds - Madrid, Spain – No.2 Rafael Nadal returned to action on home soil today after a six-week absence - since his fourth round loss to David Ferrer at the 2007 US Open: a match that ended at 1:50 am in New York and left a lasting impression of Nadal, battling tendonitis in both knees, as a wounded warrior crumpled on the ground in agony.

Nadal, the home favorite and 2005 champion, was dealt no favors when he drew the toughest quarter at the ATP Masters Series (AMS) in Madrid with Marcos Baghdatis scheduled as his first match up. Nadal lived up to the test and sailed past Cypriot Baghdatis 6-4, 6-4 in one hour and 37 minutes. Next up for the brave Spaniard is Britain’s No.1 player, Andy Muray. BetUS Sportsbook has Nadal favored at -200 over Murray at +150.

Tennis Betting Line: Andy Murray +150 Rafael Nadal -200

Match Time: 05:00 AM EST

Tennis Prediction: No.2 Nadal, whose ailing knees have not recovered fully, will face a real test in the third round against Andy Murray. The one and only career meeting between the two was in the R16 at the 2007 Australian Open. The match was a marathon five-setter that went the way of Nadal 6-7(3), 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-1.

While at AMS tournaments matches are played to the best of three sets, this match will be no less trying than their previous meeting.

Murray, after missing a good chunk of the season with a wrist injury, is enjoying his best run since returning to action. His good form gives him the slightest edge over Nadal’s questionable form. At +150 disadvantaged odds, Murray is a good bet.

However, one can never discount Nadal in any tournament, and despite his ailing knees, he is still a first-class competitor. Nadal is chasing his fourth Masters Series titles this season and brings into this match a 62/11 record for the season and six ATP titles.

Hard is not Nadal’s best surface, but in winning the AMS in Indiana Wells, he proved he was a valid contender on this surface. Add to that home court advantage, Nadal still has the edge over Murray.

Tennis Free Pick: Nadal in three sets.

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Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room