Posted on 3/19/2008 7:27:43 PM

AMS Indian Wells Fourth Round Tennis Odds and Picks

By Nila Amerova

Indian Wells, CA – The Pacific Life Open fourth round today serves up some chartbusting matchups, namely the meeting between No.2 Rafael Nadal and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who are all but just about to battle for a place in the ATP Masters Series in Indian Wells quarterfinals. Don’t miss this last chance to bet on some exciting tennis today.

Tennis Betting Line:

To win Outright: Jo Wilfried Tsonga +115 Over 22½ -140 Rafael Nadal -155 Under 22½ EV

To win first Set: Jo Wilfried Tsonga (1st Set) EV Over 10 -125 1308 Rafael Nadal (1st Set) -140 Under 10 -115

Match Time: 04:00 PM Eastern Time, Wednesday March 19, 2008

Tennis Prediction: Tennis bettors! What a fourth round matchup we have here! After Jo-Wilfried Tsonga executed a complete and convincing victory over World No.2 Rafael Nadal at the Australian Open semifinals this year, his price tag of +115 is almost too good to be true! Particularly if he should replicate his winning performance. Seriously, if Tsonga carries on in 2008 the performance that saw him reach the final of the Australian Open, he will not be priced as the underdog on the money line for much longer. For that fact alone, betting on him holds value.

On the other hand, Rafael Nadal is the defending champion at the Pacific Life Open, and by virtue of his champion-hood as well as his World No.2 ranking, he is a good bet for the win. But going against Nadal is his vulnerability on hard – a surface on which he has not been successful exerting domination to the extent he does on clay.

Tsonga has the slight edge over Nadal on this surface, particularly with his serve. For Nadal to win this match, he will not only have to serve better – his serve is not his biggest weapon—but more importantly, he will have to return Tsonga’s serve better than he did in his 6-2, 6-3, 6-2 loss at the Australian Open.

I have to admit to a bias: I am a fan of Nadal’s and I would like to see him avenge his loss against Tsonga. However, I have also become a fan of Tsonga’s as well. In all likelihood, Tsonga will be the bettor’s favorite pick, but I have to go with my favorite Nadal.

Tennis Free Picks: Nadal in three sets

Tennis Betting Line:

To win Outright: Andrew Murray -240 Tommy Haas +180

To win first Set: Andrew Murray (1st Set) -200 Tommy Haas (1st Set) +150

Match Time: 05:00 PM Eastern Time, Wednesday March 19, 2008

Tennis Prediction: The bookies favour Andy Murray at -240 in this matchup and well, with two ATP titles in this season alone and a 14-3 record for the season, there is little to suggest Murray would not be the better play. However, if we are to take a page from Federer’s assessment of Murray’s game – a game that see’s him hugging not only the baseline, but hanging way beyond the baseline, leaving the court exposed – he may find himself vulnerable against Tommy Haas, who is one of the better shotmakers and playmakers on the tour.

At +180 Haas holds value, especially as en route to the R16 he upset Andy Roddick in the second round. Haas had a slow start to the season as he underwent shoulder surgery in November, but his performance at the Pacific Life Open has been inspiring and he may very well be on his way to reclaiming his form of last year – Haas went 39-17 for the season and owned a 6-3 record over Top 10 players.

More than likely, Murray is the better play for the win, but I cannot help believing Haas just may prove to be the right pick.

Tennis Free Picks: Haas in straight sets

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room