Posted on
3/14/2008 1:14:13 AM
2008 MLB Betting Previews - Detroit Tigers
By Dave Golokhov
Injuries to the Detroit Tigers starting rotation derailed what was supposed to be a playoff season last year but they return with high expectations once again.
Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers and Jeremy Bonderman anchor the top three spots while Dontrelle Willis joins Nate Robertson in the final two spots.
Verlander and Bonderman both struggled badly after the All-Star break last year. Bonderman’s ERA rocketed from 3.48 to 7.38 while Verlander’s jumped from 3.14 to 4.27.
Both need to return their 2006 form and if spring training is any indication, these two might both be American League Cy Young candidates.
With Andrew Miller now in Florida (as part of the Miguel Cabrera trade), the Tigers don’t have much depth in their farm system so they have to avoid the injury bug.
Relief Pitching:
The Detroit Tigers have would could be a good bullpen but right now the situation is dicey. Todd Jones is slated to be the everyday closer, which is a bit of a concern given his ripe age of 39.
Jones’ ERA and opposing on-base percentage has gone up over the last three seasons while his strikeout-to-walk ratio has decrease over the last three years.
Joel Zumaya would be the ideal replacement – or support – but for a second consecutive season he is out until mid-season.
Fernando Rodney and Jason Grilli are decent but the success in the bullpen hinges on Jones and Zumaya.
Hitting:
The Tigers already had a stout lineup and by adding Miguel Cabrera, now boast one of the best orders in the business.
Curtis Granderson is a good leadoff hitter, while Placido Polanco is also underrated at helping set the table. Gary Sheffield, Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera will provide the power, while Carlos Guillen, Edgar Renteria, Ivan Rodriguez and Jacque Jones finish it up.
This is a very solid unit from top to bottom but the bench is thin.
Regular Season Win Total: 93.5
You aren’t getting good value here. If you like the Tigers, there is really very little room for error since they are expected to win 94 games to hit the over.
Their bats are strong and so is their starting rotation, but a lack of depth across the board paves concern. This team won’t be able to handle long term injuries.
Todd Jones isn’t getting any younger and if he fades to black, the bullpen will be in a lot of trouble.
On paper, they should be very good but I just don’t see the value betting this team to win so many games.
Baseball Free Picks: Under 93.5
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