posted May 16, 2008 at 13:30 in Other Articles

BetUS Sportsbook bettors who are interested in politics have noticed that even though Barack Obama may have been trounced in the West Virginia primary by Hillary Clinton, he has managed to outmaneuver her this past week nonetheless.

First, let's take a look at the latest online betting odds on the election as they are posted at BetUS Sportsbook:

BetUS 2008 Election Political Odds

2008 Election Winning Party

DEMOCRATS -180

REPUBLICANS +140

ANY OTHER PARTY +50000

On Wednesday, former U.S. Senator and 2004 VP candidate John Edwards, who has failed to win the Democratic nomination over the past two election cycles, endorsed Barack Obama for president. This fueled speculation that Edwards might be a potential running mate for Obama in the general election. And maybe I wrote off Edwards too quickly at his 22/1 odds at BetUS. Certainly his chances of running in the #2 spot have increased, making that figure look like a bargain at this point.

Clearly this move was very strategically placed, in a way where it drowned out Clinton's 41-point win in West Virginia. In fact, if Edwards' 18 pledged delegates all go to the Obama side, that would drown out Clinton's 20-8 margin in delegates she gained in West Virginia. And the announcement happened in Michigan, a state of real controversy in the Democratic party, since Obama has not been anxious to seat the delegation from that state at the convention (since the primary's early date violated rules of the Democratic National Committee). But obviously, Obama is taking dead aim at North Carolina, where he won by a wide margin over Clinton, is considered a battleground state, and which brings 15 electoral votes.

If Edwards came on board as the running mate, it might help Obama's electoral math, which is a little different than Clinton's, more of a chance to work. Edwards would also help Obama gain favor with blue-collar working people, something that has been recognized as a weakness of Obama's rather ethereal campaign. Obama has had a certain disconnect with that segment virtually from the beginning, and Edwards has been preaching a populist message in this process going back to 2004. The Democratic ticket, if it consisted of Edwards and Obama, would be looking to close any gap that might exist in the industrial states of Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, just to name a few.

But I'm not sure the Democrats should be celebrating just yet. Putting Edwards on the ticket wouldn't do very much to bring this candidacy any closer to the center. Edwards might be helpful in places like North Carolina and Iowa, but how much strength he has in the south as a whole is debatable, since he did not do as well as expected there during the 2004 primaries. Clinton does indeed have a valid claim that she'd have more of ability to win those states where Obama might have a harder time, namely Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. By comparison, Obama had been talking about states like Colorado and New Mexico, which don't carry nearly as many electoral votes.

Would Edwards strengthen that electoral map for him? Maybe, but it would seem critical that he deliver his own home state. And it should be mentioned that he failed to do that in the 2004 election for John Kerry, as George W. Bush won with a whopping 56% of the vote. Besides that, we still don't know who John McCain - who has strength with independents and some of the Democrats supporting Clinton - will choose as his running mate. This whole thing might resemble a game of political poker.

Obama, along those lines, is not a bad poker player; after Hillary thought she had a full house he turned his cards over and had four of a kind. But on the next hand Obama may not be so lucky. How far does Edwards' ability to attract votes extend? Is he forever a second-place guy? Despite the image Edwards likes to project, the Republicans would undoubtedly bring up that he lives in a 28,000-square foot house, becoming mega-rich by playing the game of class warfare out of his palatial law office. And of course, there are those $400 haircuts.

Edwards' endorsement, and the possibility that he could be included on the ticket, may raise the stakes, but I'm not sure it should have a seismic effect on the odds in the general election.

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(Charles Jay was the 2004 presidential candidate of the Personal Choice Party, and is also the 2008 nominee. He says he will place odds on himself at the appropriate time. He is currently a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)