posted July 18, 2008 at 15:43 in Other Props

BetUS online sportsbook visitors who place a wager or two on politics keep a close eye on polls from reliable sources that might point them in a direction as to what might affect the results of the upcoming election. Today we're going to take a look at one of those polls, and what it might mean in terms of influencing the final results.

Let's glance at the latest entertainment betting odds as they are posted at BetUS Sportsbook:

BetUS 2008 Election Political Odds

Party To Win 2008 Presidential Election

DEMOCRATS -250
REPUBLICANS +185
ANY OTHER PARTY +50000

According to the results of an interactive Zogby poll that was released on July 7, Bob Barr, the Libertarian presidential candidate, garnered 6% support among the 46,274 respondents tabulated. The report on the Zogby website indicates that 6% was "eating into McCain's needed conservative base of support."

That may be true - in fact, more of a valid assumption than ever about a Libertarian presidential contender. Whereas in the past the concept of libertarianism, which places a heavy emphasis on fiscal conservative and drastically reduced government, combined with a social liberalism that is also rooted in less government "legislation of morality," could be counted on to draw a considerable amount of support from both Democrat and Republican-leaning voters, Barr seems to be taking dead aim at the conservatives who are not satisfied with Republican candidate John McCain, which have been a concern for people in the GOP from the start.

Barr is getting the support is 7% of the respondents who identified themselves as conservatives, and in a subsequent phone survey conducted by Zogby, got 7% of independents and 7% of those who attend religious services on a weekly basis, while receiving only 43% of those who classified themselves as "libertarian" (a smaller group). Maybe this shouldn't be a surprise, since Barr won the Libertarian Party nomination on the sixth ballot and got only 51.8% of delegates when the final vote was tallied that day, despite a sizable advantage in so-called "name value." He is generally not viewed as a pure libertarian, and has since angered some hard-core "L's" by, among other things, delivering glowing words for ultra-right wing former Senator Jesse Helms upon Helms' death on the Fourth of July (Note: We will not editorialize extensively on this, because our own campaign may play more of a part in this story as things progress - see signature below).

Barr's 43% among those who are allegedly of his own political persuasion compares rather unfavorably to Barack Obama's 83% support among Democrats, and McCain's 75% backing from Republicans.

Nonetheless, Barr seems to have found his niche. John Zogby, whose company conducted the poll, stated. "Bob Barr could really hurt McCain's chances. McCain can't afford the level of slippage to Barr we found among conservatives in this polling."

Another pollster, Mark Blumenthal, suggests that high early polling numbers for third-party candidates often create optimism that is not warranted: "Why does early support tend to collapse for third-party candidates? One theory is that the lack of perceived viability eventually erodes their support. Voters might truly prefer a Nader or a Barr but ultimately decide that their vote is better used to decide between the major party candidates." Another "X" factor that should be added in here is that McCain could shore up some of his conservative problems with policy statements, or with his choice of a running mate, which would perhaps leave Barr scrambling.

If Barr's numbers hold up, however, that could largely constitute the difference between Obama and McCain, because that same Zogby poll puts Obama at 44%, with McCain at 38%. In Zogby's projected Electoral College count, Obama sits at 273, with McCain at 160, and 105 classified as "Undecided," meaning they represent states where it is too close to make a call. This means that McCain would have to win all the undecideds, plus steal something from Obama, to win the election.

We'll talk to you again next week, from the campaign trail.....

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(Charles Jay is the 2008 presidential nominee of both the Boston Tea Party and the Personal Choice Party. He says he will place odds on himself at the appropriate time. He is currently a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)