Posted on 5/2/2008 3:55:36 PM

134th Kentucky Derby Betting - Go Pyro Go!

By Robby Maddux

Like a chocoholic hanging out at Willy Wonka's Chocolate Factory, or a recovering alcoholic sitting in a bar, I can't resist taking a stab at the Run for the Roses. But having already stated, ''I couldn't pick a winner in a one-horse field'', I'm keeping my Kentucky Derby betting limit to a modest $100. Here's a look at my selections and horse wagering strategy.

1 - #9 PYRO - This horse is a stud that was made to look bad by his connections, who entered him as a first-timer on synthetic surface in the Blue Grass as a final prep race for the Derby when they could have prepped him on the very same day on dirt in the Arkansas Derby. Pyro's 10th-place finish on the plastic in the 12-horse field speaks for itself.

But on the first Saturday in May he's back on dirt, where he won the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby in his two previous starts before firing the dud on synthetic. If you throw out the Blue Grass, and with good reasoning, he's hit the board in all of his career outings with three wins, two second-place finishes and one third. With a top-three effort in his final prep, Pyro would of been made the morning-line favorite instead of the over-hyped Big Brown. But that may be a good thing, considering chalk doesn't traditionally fly well in the Kentucky Derby.

Pyro's running style, coming from off the pace, is preferred in America's greatest race. He'll break from post 9 with Shaun Bridgmohan aboard, who will be bringing him from the clouds in his run at becoming the next Triple Crown hopeful. I expect him to be bet down from his 6-1 morning-line odds to somewhere in the neighborhood of 9-2, possibly 7-2.

2 - #17 COWBOY CAL - You always have to give respect to a Todd Pletcher-trained horse, who's switching from turf to the main track for the Derby. Cowboy Cal made three starts last year and three this year, including a win in the Tropical Park Derby. He was second by a neck in the Blue Grass Stakes, leading all the way until caught in the final strides by Monba (another Pletcher trainee) in his final prep.

In his six career starts, Cowboy Cal has three wins and two second-place finishes. His only bad race was his first time out when he ran seventh, but he's progressed nicely since then. Cowboy Cal starts from post 17 with John Velazquez up.

3 - #4 COURT VISION - This horse comes into the Derby off a sharp prep at Aqueduct where he finished third in the Wood Memorial as his 6th career start. He raced four times as a 2-year-old that included two stakes wins.

Lifetime, Court Vision has never failed to show, having three wins, one second and three third-place finishes. Garrett Gomez will be in the saddle, starting from post 4.

$100 online Kentucky Derby wagering strategy: $44 WIN 9 - $8 EXACTA 9, 17 ($16) $8 EXACTA 9, 4 ($16) $4 TRIFECTA BOX 9, 17, 4 ($24)

There's good value on all plays by leaving Big Brown and Colonel John out as the two favorites. I expect Big Brown to pitch a bad outing, fading badly down the stretch.

Big Brown has a front-running style and if he gets caught in a speed duel after being used early by jockey Kent Desormeaux, who has to hustle him out of the gate in order to get towards the front for a clear angle at the rail before reaching the first turn, he may not have much left in the tank at the end.

I also have a concern with Big Brown loading and breaking from post 20 that's only approximately 15 feet from a ruckus crowd that will be juiced up on mint juleps. As mentioned earlier he has a huge assignment right out of the gate, and if the crowd becomes a distraction to Big Brown as they load, he'll lose focus and break poorly which would be game over.

Big Brown is unbeaten but has just three career starts, so he will also have to overcome an inexperience factor. The last Derby winner with only three previous career starts was the filly Regret in 1915. As well, in the past 60 years only two horses have smelled the roses with only two 3-year-old preps to its credit, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, and online Kentucky Derby betting fans watched Street Sense do it last year.

There's also history in his way which adds to Big Brown's perfect recipe of destruction. The only Derby winner to leave from post 20 was Clyde Van Dusen, as horse betting fans watched him make history way back in 1929.

As for Colonel John, I just can't pull the trigger on a horse making his debut on dirt, especially in a race of this magnitude.

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Kentucky Derby.