The Two Types of Bets - Value Bets and Bluffs

This is an article for poker players who are new to poker theory. Any time we’re doing a hands breakdown analysis, or using an example in a strategy article, it’s not enough to simply advise someone to bet or raise. You need to know why you should bet or call, you need to know where the equity (also known as value) of a bet or raise comes from.

The two types of bets, value bets and bluffs, correspond to the two types of equity or value we can have in a hand, showdown equity and fold equity.

Value bets are based on showdown equity.

Bluffs are based on fold equity.

Showdown equity is the value that a hand has from its chances of winning at the showdown. The “showdown” is the point, after the river betting, where everyone shows their hand and the winner takes the pot. If there is no chance that your opponents (all of them) will fold, your hand has only showdown equity, no fold equity. Showdown equity is based primarily on the cards you are holding, not the actions that you take. The number value of your showdown equity is based on the size of pot multiplied by your probability of winning.

Showdown Equity = Size of the pot X Probability of winning

Fold equity is the value that a hand has from the possibility of everyone else folding and you winning the pot without a showdown. Your cards are not relevant to your showdown equity, only your actions. If you have a hand that has no chance of winning at the showdown, you only have fold equity. For an actual number value,

Fold Equity = Size of the pot X Probability of all opponents folding

The total value of your hand is simply the sum its fold equity and its showdown equity.

Total Equity = Showdown Equity + Fold Equity

A value bet in poker is a bet which is based on your showdown equity. You are betting hoping to get called; you believe that you have a better chance of winning a showdown than your opponents.

A bluff is a bet which is based on your fold equity. You hope that your opponent will fold at a high enough frequency that your play will show a profit. (You already know what a bluff is, I’m just trying to show you what it is from a different, more theoretical angle.)

A semi-bluff is a bet or raise which has both some showdown equity, and some fold equity. Usually, most of your total equity comes from fold equity when you semi-bluff. You’re hoping that your opponent(s) folds, but if he doesn’t, you have some chance of winning at the showdown (usually a draw that might hit).

Any time you are in a hand, you should begin by thinking about your showdown equity. If it’s good, i.e. you have a good hand, you should obviously continue playing. If you don’t have showdown equity, it may still be correct to play, if you have fold equity. So the next step is to ascertain whether you have fold equity, i.e. what are the chances you can make you opponents fold. Make sure that every play you make, you are trying to make the sum of your fold equity and showdown equity as large as possible.