Hand History Analysis - Deep Stack 1/2 PLO

Preflop: AA96. Assume that all relevant players have $400 in their stack.

Any hand with AA is strong enough to play preflop, but this is a fairly weak one. With a hand like this you don’t want to put in too much action unless you can get the majority of your (or your opponent’s) stack all-in preflop. You are UTG (under the gun, first after the big blind) and call the $2 big blind. There are two more limpers, then the button raises to $10. The blinds fold and you, along with the other two limpers, call. The pot is $43.

Flop: AT3. Three-suited flops are difficult to play (unless you have the nut flush). If you bet out right here you risk having to fold to a pot-size raise, and you’d definitely like to see the turn card, if not the river, so you check. The next player, one of the preflop limpers, bets $30. He’s tight-aggressive, but probably folds a little bit too much. He’s almost a “nut-peddler,” a player that only puts in big action with the nuts.

Both other players fold, and it’s back to you. You could raise now, but you still have to fold to a reraise. Your other option is calling. The problem with that is if the board pairs a nut-peddler is unlikely to pay you off. For reference, your chance of making a full house (or quads) on the turn is 6:1, but your chance of making a full house by the river is 2:1.

Instead of either of these straightforward options, I’d go for something a little bit trickier. I would call the bet with the intention of check-raising on the turn if I miss. I’m trying to represent the nut flush, and it’s entirely reasonable I would check-call, check-raise with the nuts, so there’s a good chance my opponent will buy it and fold a smaller flush. If he checks behind with his smaller flush, then I get to see the river card for free. If I hit on the turn, I’ll check (if I bet out he’d probably fold), even though I know he’ll check behind. I’m hoping to make a value bet on the river (he’ll probably call with the nut flush, hoping I’m value-betting a lower flush).

I realize this all seems very complicated, but you need to plan out the whole hand on the flop when you’re playing PLO.

The pot is $103.

Turn: 8. We check and our opponent checks behind; so much for our bluff check-raise. It’s clear now that he has a non-nut flush. The fact that he checked behind on the turn means that he probably wants to keep the pot cheap so that he can see the showdown. There’s no way we should try to bluff him out on the river if we miss.

The pot is $103.

River: 8. We hit our full house. Going for a check-raise would be terrible, there’s no way he’s betting his flush now if he didn’t do it on a non-paired board on the turn. We have to make a value bet, but how much? I would say $25-$50. It’s unlikely that he’ll call, but we have to try to sell it. You bet $40 and he folds.