Hand Analysis - 20 40 Limit Hold'em

In the articles in this hand analysis section of the poker school, I walk you through my thought processes as I play a hand. Although you may disagree with individual decisions (and be right!), my hope is that you’ll learn something new from the way I think about a hand, especially how I try to make decisions with future betting rounds in mind.

Preflop: AT You’re on the ‘cut-off,’ one position to the right of the button. You have AT off suit. The first two players fold and you raise. This isn’t a particularly great hand, but against only one player behind you and the two blinds it’s definitely worth raising. The button three bets you; the small blind folds; the big blind calls and you call.

Flop: T 6 7 This is a great flop for your hand. The big blind checks, and you have your first tough decision of the hand. You can bet, anticipating the button raising, and try to force out the big blind, or you could go for a check-raise. Because the pot is already pretty big (9.5 small bets), I would choose the bet. If I check-raise, the big blind will only have to call one bet at a time, and is very unlikely to fold. This is bad because any K, Q or J, and maybe even 8 or 9 is a bad card for us, so we’d like to reduce our opposition. So you bet, and the button raises as expected. The small blind folds and you have to decide whether to reraise or just call. If your opponent is both tight and passive you should only call, as he is likely to hold an overpair. However, against most players’ hand ranges, you’re a favorite. The decision is whether to three bet now or just call with the intention of check-raising the turn. I would three bet now because of the dangerous overcards mention earlier, and because the button could have been raising as a free card play. You three bet and the button calls.

Turn: 2d A total brick. You bet and the button calls.

River: Kd Definitely not a brick, you really didn’t want to see a K. Because of how he played the hand, it seems like the button has something like AK, AQ or KQ, or a middle or small pair like 99 or 55. You’re probably still a favorite to win the hand, but the problem is that the K will scare the button from calling with a lot of the hands you beat. Is 55 or 99 still going to call your bet with the K on board? Even if you were bluffing there’s a chance you just hit. That’s why, against players who know how to read opponents’ ranges and fold on the river, you should probably just check and call. Against players who are afraid of getting bluffed out, you should bet for value. Checking also makes sense as an induce bluff play. So you check and the button checks as well. He has AQ and you win the pot.