posted May 16, 2008 at 14:12 in Triple Crown Articles

The great Harvey Pack has a saying that you can’t pay the mortgage at 2-5 and anybody looking to make a score in this year’s Preakness has to look elsewhere for value.

Sure, he figures, sure, he has been a monster, but these are not machines and Big Brown has never been back this quickly, a mere 2 weeks, in his life.

Also what is eye-catching for online betting aficionados is that despite what Brown did for the nation and his connections in the Derby has not scared anybody away as a large field is intact.

With few coming from the Derby to test Brown in Baltimore, bettors have to understand that only 6 Preakness winners since 1970 have skipped the Derby but two of those winners Red Bullet and Bernardini, cashed in the last 8 years.

The reality is that the sports betting Derby winner has dominated in the Preakness the last 10 years as 6 took the 2nd jewel; one ran second, one ran third, one ran 6th and Barbaro, of course, did not finish.

One thing bettors always hear time and time again is that the Pimlico surface is speed conducive and you have to be near the lead to succeed. But it’s not quite reality.

Consider these web gems from the past by some stars in the business including Gary Stevens before he went on to take the 2001 edition with Point Given.

Stevens: “ That’s a fallacy. It’s like an old wives’ tale that Old Hilltop is a speed racetrack. Every year I’ve got to go through the same thing, that Pimlico is a speed track. Basically, the horses run the exact same style at Baltimore as they do in the Kentucky Derby. It’s not a speed-favoring racetrack. It’s a fair racetrack and I think if you get your horse position where it belongs, then you’ve got a shot. But people who go in there with the attitude that it’s a speed racetrack and try and change a horse’s style, they’re making a major mistake…. you’ve got no chance.”

Point Given’s trainer Bob Baffert also chimed in, Baffert: “The only horse I ever saw that got out there and really coasted was Louis Quatorze. Other than that, I’ve never seen it that way.”

If bettors want to get paid in the Preakness, they have to look to the superfecta to make a score. Before last year, when the top three picks were the trifecta players, the super has averaged nearly 6 grand for a buck wager.

So who is the key to the ‘life changer’ in Baltimore. Well, if I was a drinking man, and I am, it would be a horse that translates to ‘three drunks’ Tres Borrachos.

He’s only won once but has run well at a number of different venues, brings positional speed and he’s in good hands as his trainer Beau Greely is from a long line of horsemen and he knows what to do with a good horse as he saddled Borrego for a Pacific Classic score a couple of seasons back.

Key this guy first and second in the superfecta with Big Brown, Hey Bryn, Behindatthebar, Riley Tucker and Kentucky Bear and hope to make those reservations at the airport.

Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Racetrack bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2008 Preakness Stakes.