posted March 18, 2008 at 18:29 in NBA Betting Trends
NBA Furious Free Picks – Boston, We Have A Problem
Boston Celtics (53-13) vs. Houston Rockets (46-20)
Tuesday, March 18th --- Toyota Center, Houston --- 9:30pm EST
NBA Betting Line: Houston -4.5 (181.5)
Michael Jordan made the number “23” famous. Now Lebron James is carrying on the legacy of two-three. But Tracy McGrady and the Houston Rockets can make history as they continue their legendary winning-streak and etch the number “23” in to the memories of basketball bettors for another reason. And there’s no better way to do it than by beating the team with the best record in the league.
The Rockets and Celtics are the top teams in the East and West. The Celtics handed Houston a 97-93 defeat back in January, but that was with T-Mac sitting on the sidelines. Both teams are top-5 in the league with defense and Houston is becoming one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league. The Rockets average 7.3 treys per game on the season, but have been hitting 9+ per game during the historic streak.
Luther Head and Rafer Alston are becoming absolute snappers from beyond the arc. With teams keying on T-Mac defensively, the role players are shining in on the spotlight. The perimeter defense of Boston is superb, but the T-Mac will be the most dominant force on the floor and can overpower the Truth in this matchup. With Ray Allen as a big question mark to hit the floor tonight, it’s hard to imagine Boston being able to match the three-point game.
But if the Rockets are weak anywhere, it’s at power-forward. Luis Scola is a fine player with 9.3 points per game and 5.8 rebounds per game. But the Rockets betting faithful are delusional if they think he can hope to contain Kevin Garnett, who will likely start at the four-spot for the C’s tonight. But, then again, we could’ve said the same thing about Pau Gasol and the Lakers before they lost to the Rockets.
What’s even more remarkable about this winning streak is the way in which Houston has rewarded their betting faithful. Usually the oddsmakers adjust for monumental success, but the word “fluke” has casually been tossed around in conversation concerning the Rockets. But number’s don’t lie. Houston is 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games and are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 when playing Boston.
The defensive output of Shane Battier is immeasurable. He frustrated the living hell out of Kobe Bryant in their tilt with LA, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t have a similar affect on Paul Pierce. The former Dukie has 9.1 points per game with 5.1 boards but is becoming a defensive nightmare for the opposition.
All that being said, Boston’s comeback victory over the Spurs is far more telling than the history lesson the Rockets are rewriting. Boston squeaked out a 93-91 thriller against the best all-round team in the league. The key to victory here will be for Boston to force T-Mac to do all the work while Boston shuts down the role-players from getting hot. Boston proved it’s penchant for patience with solid team defense against San Antonio. If they take away the perimeter threats that Houston boasts, and allows T-Mac to go hog wild at home, Boston will take enough scoring off the board to keep this game in their favor.
Never underestimate a team of savage veterans who play for a hyper-competitive team. Boston is chalk full of them, with or without Ray Allen’s deft shooting. I would bet on that any night against a surprising band of upstarts like the Rockets. They might make believers out of everyone tonight by stretching the streak to twenty-three, but I wouldn’t put my money on it. And neither should you. As much as the Rockets haven’t given reason to bet against them, neither has Boston. The Celtics, certainly, offer a lot more justification for being the best in their conference than the Rockets and that will become evident with an upset over the raging Rockets.
Bet on the green team as Kevin Garnett spells trouble for the thin front court of Houston. Boston will allow McGrady to score the lights out, but will take away the perimeter shooting of Houston’s role players. I’m not saying that Houston is lucky. Far from it, actually. What I am saying is that Boston is the real deal, and they will prove it by beating the current king of the hill in the West.
NBA Free Picks: Boston +4.5 (OVER)
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